DÉCOUVREZ FT MERCATI - ESSAI GRATUIT
FT Mercati met à la disposition des abonnés un bulletin dédié aux matières premières pour rester à jour. Voici une sélection des dernières nouvelles :
06/05/2024
The international analysis company World Bank reports the estimated average price for nickel in 2024 and 2025, updated according to its latest release in april:
2024 = $ 17,000 /tonn .
2025 = $ 18,000 /tonn .
(Estimates are lower than communicated in the previous October 2023 release)
06/05/2024
OPECNA, the news agency of OPEC, announced the OPEC Basket preliminary price
02 may = $ 83.79 /b (down from previous daily value)
(The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) introduced on 16 June 2005, is currently made up of the following: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia , UAE and Venezuela.
06/05/2024
Tin had one of the strongest upsides among base metals in the first quarter.
Sucden noted the impact of supply disruptions from key tin producers Indonesia and Myanmar on the tin market. Daria Efanova, head of research at UK-based service provider Sucden Financial, also mentioned the increasing tension in the North Kivu region of the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the Bisie mine produces approximately 4.5% of global tin.
Despite these significant supply-side disruptions, Efanova noted that it was not just fundamental factors driving tin prices higher.
“We expect that there is a more speculative side and an appetite for higher prices that brought the momentum on the upside,” Efanova said.
Sucden remains bullish on tin in the long term due to its increasing significance to the green energy sector.
In the second quarter, Sucden expects that tin prices will be more volatile than the other base metals.
06/05/2024
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a new report forecasting a twelve-fold increase in the size of the global electric vehicle fleet between 2023 and 2035, supported by growing investment in the EV supply chain, ongoing policy support, and declining vehicle prices.
According to the IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2024, global EV fleet (excluding two- and threewheelers) to reach 525 million by 2035 from under 45 million in 2023, after a Q1 EV sales grew of 25% YoY.
As a result, the IEA forecasts that more than one in four vehicles on the road will be electric by 2035.
Also, IEA warns of potential overcapacity in battery recycling .
06/05/2024
(Changes compared to the previous day are shown in parentheses) :
BALTIC DRY INDEX = 1876 (increasing)
Index of shipping and freight cost. Despite its name, it collects the data of the main world routes and not only those of the Baltic Sea.
CRB COMMODITY INDEX = 333.41 (increasing)
The commodity Research Bureau is published by 1958 and is an index on commodities
LME INDEX = 4266.80 (increasing)
Index of the London Metal Exchange of non-ferrous metals, world reference.
03/05/2024
Copper needs to reach $12 000 a ton (a 20% jump from this week’s high) to incentivize large-scale investments in new mines, said Olivia Markham, who co-manages the BlackRock World Mining Fund.
The metal’s price hit a two-year high near $10 000, but Markham said further gains are necessary to encourage miners to sign off on projects required to avoid major deficits during the energy transition.
BlackRock has been among the most bullish voices in the copper market for years, and by degrees that sentiment is echoing across the industry as buyers contend with an unprecedented shortage of mined ore. Demand has been alarmingly soft in China this year, but a broad consensus has nevertheless emerged that the worsening squeeze on mine supply may jolt prices.
Markham’s forecast is underpinned by an analysis of the soaring costs miners incurred in building copper projects recently, with an average spend of about $30 000 for each ton of production capacity.
For a mine producing 300 000 tons a year, that would translate to a ballpark price tag of $9-billion. Incentive-pricing analysis indicates that miners would need $12 000/t copper to make a 15% post-tax return on future investments, she said.
Anything below that, and they may be reluctant to go ahead.
Together with signs of improving manufacturing sentiment, the shortage of mined copper that’s emerged this year has led some to ask if now is the beginning of a bull run that could see the metal smash price records.
