Lead bucked the broader trend in overnight metals trading on July 22, 2026, as LME lead fell 0.48% while most base metals on both domestic and international exchanges recorded gains, according to data published by the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, SHFE lead was also the standout laggard among base metals, declining 0.95% in overnight trading. The move contrasted sharply with the performance of other metals on the exchange, where SHFE copper rose 1.69%, SHFE aluminum added 0.56%, SHFE zinc gained 0.55%, SHFE tin climbed 1.02%, and SHFE nickel advanced 0.77%.
The picture was similarly mixed for lead in the overseas markets. On the LME, lead was the sole base metal to close lower, falling 0.48%, even as LME copper surged 1.91%, LME aluminum added 0.81%, LME zinc rose 0.94%, LME tin jumped 1.53%, and LME nickel gained 1.12%. The relative weakness in lead underscores ongoing demand-side headwinds in the lead-acid battery segment, consistent with seasonal consumption patterns.
Precious metals outperformed across the board. COMEX gold rose 1.65% and COMEX silver surged 3.50%, while on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded SHFE gold contract advanced 1.36% and SHFE silver climbed 3.01%. On the macro front, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.21, according to SMM.
Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate action shifted during the session. According to CME FedWatch data cited by SMM, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its July meeting stood at 74.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point hike priced at 25.1%. For the September meeting, the probability of no change was 28.9%, while a cumulative 25 basis point hike was priced at 55.7% and a cumulative 50 basis point hike at 15.4%.
A Reuters poll cited by SMM further indicated that 78 out of 104 economists expect the Fed to hold the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% throughout 2026. Crude oil markets provided significant macroeconomic support for the metals complex overnight. WTI crude rose 2.5% and Brent crude advanced 2.71%, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The US-Iran military conflict entered its tenth day, with Houthi forces announcing a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea plunged 34% over two weeks, according to Wall Street News as cited by SMM. The International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that hostile acts against energy infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz region have exacerbated concerns over global energy supply security.
In the ferrous metals complex, the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.84% and coke gained 0.52%, while rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose within 0.2%. Iron ore edged down 0.13% and stainless steel added 0.2%. All data cited in this article are sourced from the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) overnight market report dated July 22, 2026.
Source: news.metal.com