Chile's copper production is expected to decline by 2.6% in 2026 to 5.27 million metric tons, before recovering in 2027, according to the state-run copper commission Cochilco. The weakness in this year's outlook is attributed to underwhelming output at state-owned Codelco and BHP's Chilean operations, combined with exceptionally poor performance in the first half of the year. Cochilco identified production declines at Codelco and BHP's Escondida and Spence mines, along with structural constraints across multiple operations, as significant headwinds on the forecast.
However, the agency expects a partial rebound during the second half of 2026, supported by improvements at Codelco's El Teniente mine, progress at the state miner's Rajo Inca project, greater operational stability at Teck's Quebrada Blanca, normalization at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde, and enhanced ore grades and water availability at Collahuasi, which is jointly owned by Anglo American, Glencore, and a Japanese consortium. Antofagasta-operated Los Pelambres was also highlighted by Cochilco as a key contributor to the anticipated recovery. Looking toward 2027, Cochilco projects Chilean copper output will rebound to 5.55 million tons, supported by a low comparative baseline and the gradual acceleration of operations.
The main drivers of this recovery are expected to include Codelco, Quebrada Blanca, Escondida, Collahuasi, Los Pelambres, and Mantoverde. On the global demand side, Cochilco forecasts copper consumption at 27.8 million tons in 2026, representing a 1.9% year-on-year increase, with China serving as the primary growth engine. Chinese copper demand is projected to rise 2.7% to 16 million tons, accounting for 57.6% of global total consumption.
Source: wap.asianmetal.com