Goldman Sachs cautioned in a Friday note that global oil demand has declined more substantially than anticipated, creating two-sided risks to its fourth-quarter 2026 crude oil price forecasts, according to EnergyNow.com. The investment bank projected demand destruction of 4 million to 5 million barrels per day globally in April, attributing the decline to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, which appeared to have reduced global demand by 4% to 5%. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude at $90 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $83 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026.
Weaker consumption in China and Western Europe drove the demand contraction, with April retail fuel sales reports showing softness in both regions, Goldman Sachs noted. The bank's estimates were derived from three analytical approaches: an examination of global refinery runs, high-frequency measurements of oil demand, and estimates sourced from other forecasters and trading houses. While the demand decline presents downside risks to crude oil valuations, Goldman Sachs identified significant upside risks should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed and global oil supplies contract further.
Market pricing reflected the demand concerns on Friday. Brent crude futures settled at $93.09 per barrel, declining $1.94 or 2.04%. U.S.
West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $90.54 per barrel, down $2.50 or 2.69%. Source: EnergyNow.com, reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru.
Source: energynow.com