The Trump administration has launched the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE) at the 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial, bringing together 55 foreign delegations to coordinate efforts against Chinese dominance in critical minerals supply chains. The initiative succeeds the Minerals Security Partnership, which was established in 2022 by the United States to accelerate the development of diverse critical minerals supply chains in cooperation with industry and allied governments. FORGE was presented as a broader plurilateral initiative intended to coordinate critical minerals policies, pricing, and projects among US allies and partners.
The ministerial announced three core strategies: price floor mechanisms, a preferential trade bloc, and national strategic stockpiles. The Trump administration proposed a trade zone that would uphold reference prices enforced through adjustable tariffs to serve as price floors for each stage of critical mineral production. This mechanism aims to protect producers from unfair market practices such as dumping, where foreign producers sell goods below production costs to outcompete local producers.
The administration also launched Project Vault to establish a new strategic minerals stockpile to insulate American manufacturers from supply shocks. These efforts align with earlier European initiatives. In 2022, the European Parliament passed the Critical Raw Materials Act, which aimed to reduce reliance on any single country, particularly China.
The act set benchmarks requiring certain percentages of European Union annual mineral consumption to be produced domestically by 2030: at least 10 percent for extraction, over 40 percent for processing, 25 percent for recycling, and no more than 65 percent of annual processing sourced from any single third country. In July 2026, FORGE partners established two working groups to support collaboration at project and policy levels. The Projects Investment Working Group will identify and facilitate investment for strategic critical mineral extraction, processing, and recycling projects, coordinating among partners and industry stakeholders.
The Policy Coordination Working Group will advance shared critical minerals policy objectives by coordinating policy tools and messaging. US Vice President J.D. Vance characterized mineral prices as erratic and unpredictable, positioning reference pricing across the supply chain as a primary solution to strategic concerns.
A subsequent partnership agreement between the United States and European Union, brokered by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, mentions mechanisms including border-adjusted price floors, price gap subsidies, financial support for projects through joint ventures and offtake agreements, and strategic stockpiling. Historical precedents inform FORGE's potential implementation. The Japan-Australia rare earth partnership built around Lynas Rare Earths offers an established model.
In March 2023, Japan Australia Rare Earth (JARE), a special-purpose vehicle created by the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security and the Sojitz Corporation, committed an additional 200 million dollars in Lynas equity. In return, Lynas agreed to supply up to 65 percent of its dysprosium and terbium output to the Japanese market. In October 2025, Japan began importing heavy rare earth elements from Australia for the first time.
By March 2026, JARE and Lynas revised their supply agreement to include a firm offtake commitment for 5,000 metric tons of neodymium-praseodymium, backed by a 110 dollar per kilogram floor price. If prices rise above 150 dollars per kilogram, JARE receives 30 percent of the upside, capped at 10 million dollars per year. Similar logic is evident in recent US initiatives.
A 2025 US government contract with MP Materials paired direct public financing with demand-side guarantees: the Department of Defense committed 400 million dollars in preferred equity, provided a 10-year neodymium-praseodymium floor price of 110 dollars per kilogram, and backed magnet sales through long-term offtake support, while JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs committed 1 billion dollars in financing. Project Vault is backed by both a 10 billion dollar US Export-Import Bank loan and 2 billion dollars in private capital. Congress has also signaled its intention to spur private sector investment.
In June 2026, the House passed the Developing Overseas Mineral Investments and New Allied Networks for Critical Energies (DOMINANCE) Act, formally codifying US participation in FORGE and mobilizing resources to expand non-Chinese critical minerals supply chains. The act designates an Office of Energy Security Pacts within the State Department to align tools across government agencies to support mineral investments abroad. However, analysis reveals significant challenges to displacing Chinese dominance.
China currently dominates cobalt refining, accounting for approximately 79 percent of global refined cobalt production. All three of the next-largest cobalt-refining countries—Finland, Canada, and Japan—are prospective FORGE members. Even with possible additional output of approximately 37,350 to 40,350 metric tons from announced projects in potential FORGE countries, total output would still fall short of displacing China as the dominant processing nation.
In 2024, global refined cobalt production was 222,000 metric tons, with China accounting for 175,000 metric tons. China's dominance is even more pronounced in rare earth element processing. China alone is responsible for processing approximately 90 percent of rare earth elements globally.
A compilation of processing capacity from dysprosium projects in the pipeline within potential FORGE nations finds limited output compared to Chinese capacity. The total output of announced processing projects that include dysprosium is approximately 11,000 metric tons, though actual dysprosium output is expected to be even lower. Geographic diversification is occurring in these sectors.
Canada's Electra Battery Materials Corporation is constructing North America's first cobalt sulfate refinery. In Australia, the Kwinana Cobalt Refinery is the country's first dedicated cobalt refinery producing battery-grade sulfate. Lynas Rare Earths became the first producer of separated heavy rare earths outside China after commencing separate dysprosium production at its Malaysian plant in 2025.
Many of these projects are receiving substantial government investments. The European Commission has approved dozens of strategic projects, including the Caremag processing project, which is expected to cover 50 percent of European heavy rare earth needs by 2030. Strategic projects will receive financing, support connecting with offtakers, and streamlined permitting to reduce the typical 5- to 10-year permitting process down to 27 months.
The Iluka Eneabba facility in Australia, the country's first fully integrated rare earths refinery, is being fully funded under a risk-sharing agreement with the Australian government. The Queensland government designated the Townsville Energy Chemicals Hub Project as a prescribed project due to its economic importance. Despite these efforts, challenges persist.
In 2025, Jervois Global, parent company of Jervois Finland Oy, which was developing the Jervois Finland Cobalt project, announced bankruptcy. The company began struggling after a Chinese-backed mine opened in the Democratic Republic of Congo, increasing global cobalt production and reducing prices, demonstrating vulnerability to Chinese market pressure. FORGE faces operational challenges that require clarification.
While allies have broadcast their intention to coordinate through FORGE, details regarding how it will operate remain limited. Several weeks after FORGE was announced, the Office of the United States Trade Representative requested public comments on the design of a plurilateral Agreement on Trade in Critical Minerals. The office later announced separate action plans with the European Union and Japan to coordinate trade policies on critical minerals supply chains, though neither action plan referenced FORGE.
Enforcement mechanisms remain undefined. FORGE will need mechanisms ensuring members adhere to coordinated trade policies. While countries are incentivized to join multilateral efforts to diversify supply chains, they are also incentivized to defect afterward.
If FORGE members agree to a common price floor, each member will face incentives to quietly undercut that price to advantage its own domestic industry. To mitigate this possibility, FORGE would need to raise the cost of defection through credible enforcement and monitoring, including transparency requirements and penalties for noncompliance, though how these could be feasibly imposed on sovereign nations is unclear. An inherent tension also exists between collective cooperation goals and each member's self-interest to leverage its processing capacity for domestic usage.
Countries are onshoring to the maximum extent possible, recognizing vulnerabilities posed by offshore supply chains. Given the European Union's targets for onshoring, these efforts may not translate into increased supply for the United States or other FORGE members if oriented toward achieving domestic self-sufficiency rather than exporting to allied partners. However, every member cannot realistically onshore processing capacity for every critical mineral, suggesting FORGE could facilitate coordinated specialization whereby countries contribute according to their comparative advantage.
According to analysis by Resources for the Future, FORGE lays the groundwork for a more diversified critical minerals supply chain by providing a framework for decisionmaking and market coordination across allied nations. However, given China's dominant position after decades of investment in expanding critical minerals processing capacities, the investments made by allied nations are unlikely to radically alter the landscape within the next few years.
Source: rff.org