Oil prices declined on Thursday as major forecasters reduced their global demand projections for 2026, offsetting supply concerns stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures dropped $1.29, or 1.5%, to $87.69 a barrel by 0100 GMT on August 13, 2026. U.S.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.30, or 1.6%, to $81.97 a barrel. The downward pressure on prices came from revised demand forecasts by key market participants. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its world oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day in its monthly oil market report released on Wednesday.
The International Energy Agency went further, announcing it expects a 1.6 million bpd contraction in consumption this year, down from a forecast of 1 million bpd last month. The IEA attributed the deeper decline to restricted fuel supplies and higher prices resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which have curtailed demand across global markets. Additional downward pressure came from U.S. inventory data.
The Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, marking their highest level since June 5 and the largest weekly gain since January 2023. This build contrasted sharply with analyst expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel draw, driven by a slump in exports. Despite these demand headwinds, prices remained supported by ongoing supply-side risks.
Negotiations between Iran and the United States to end the war in the Gulf remained deadlocked, with a senior Iranian source reporting on Wednesday that there had been no progress in talks to revive an interim deal agreed in June or establish a timeline for implementation. Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, two critical export routes for Middle Eastern oil and gas, highlighted the persistent risks to crude supplies from the region. Analysts at Haitong Futures noted that the deteriorating safety situation in these waters has forced vessels to turn off their signals, reducing transparency in shipping and making it more difficult for the market to assess actual supply levels.
Source: Reuters, reporting by Sam Li and Lewis Jackson, August 13, 2026.
Source: reuters.com