Analysts have increased their 2026 oil price forecasts for the third consecutive time since the Iran war began in late February, citing an extended timeline for energy flows to normalize to pre-conflict levels. According to a monthly Reuters poll published on May 29, 2026, a survey of 33 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $90.44 per barrel in 2026, up from $86.38 projected in April. U.S. crude was projected to average $84.63 per barrel, representing an increase from April's forecast of $80.07.
These latest forecasts represent substantial increases compared to February estimates released a day before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28, when Brent was projected at $63.85 per barrel and WTI at $60.38 per barrel. Since the outbreak of hostilities, Brent and WTI crude have reached four-year highs, with Brent exceeding $126.41 per barrel and WTI surpassing $119.80 per barrel. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered large-scale disruption of energy supplies.
However, current price levels remain below the record highs of more than $147 per barrel achieved in 2008. Data from shipping analytics firm Kpler demonstrates the severity of supply disruptions. Monthly crude oil exports from the Middle East, the world's largest oil-exporting region, have plummeted from an average of approximately 18.3 million barrels per day before the crisis to less than half that level at nearly 8.8 million bpd since March.
Analyst commentary reflects concerns about the extended nature of supply constraints. Surabhi Menon at EIU in India stated there is low probability of prices reaching new records this year, with only marginal increases expected from current high levels through July, based on assumptions that the war remains in its current state with a ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed through at least end of July. Thomas Wybierek, analyst at NORD/LB, emphasized that disruptions are expected to persist longer than previously anticipated, noting that even in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement, seaborne oil and gas deliveries are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels during 2026.
Analysts polled by Reuters project a substantial global oil market supply deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 500,000 to 8 million barrels per day. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasted 1.17 million bpd growth in global oil demand in 2026 in May, a reduction from the previously expected 1.38 million bpd. Conversely, the U.S.
Energy Information Administration projected demand would decline by approximately 420,000 bpd. Weaker macroeconomic conditions are dampening demand growth. Analysts at Crisil noted that higher prices, softer trade flows, and GDP downgrades are weighing on consumption expansion.
The conflict is simultaneously tightening supply while slowing demand growth. Market observers anticipate increased non-OPEC production as inventory drawdowns are projected to maintain pressure on global stocks. According to four sources briefed on the matter, seven leading OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to agree to a modest output increase for July when they meet on June 7.
However, structural constraints limit the effectiveness of production policy adjustments. Tobias Keller, analyst at UniCredit, observed that the binding constraint is not production quotas but the physical inability to move incremental barrels through the Strait of Hormuz, rendering output policy largely symbolic while exports remain impaired. Source: Reuters poll data published by EnergyNow.com on May 29, 2026.
Source: energynow.com