Brent crude oil prices rose above the $100 per barrel mark on October 1, 2026, driven by escalating concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from stalled diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran. Brent crude futures for December delivery traded at $100.49 a barrel at 12:59 p.m. local time (0959 GMT), representing a 2.5% increase from the previous close. In the previous trading session, Brent futures had risen as high as $99.30 before settling at $98.03.
The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for November delivery traded at $92.57 a barrel during the same period. The price rally was primarily supported by reports indicating that negotiations between Washington and Tehran had reached an impasse. According to US officials speaking to news outlet Axios, the White House initially believed progress could be achieved on September 28 but concluded by afternoon that talks had stalled.
The State Department subsequently requested that an Iranian delegation, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, leave the United States immediately. Iranian officials disputed these accounts, with Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations denying that the delegation had been forced to depart. The diplomatic breakdown weakened expectations for a near-term resolution to the regional conflict and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transportation chokepoint.
This uncertainty sustained a risk premium in crude prices, as market participants grew concerned about prolonged supply disruptions from the conflict zone. Two US officials told the Associated Press that Araghchi had initially been scheduled to remain in New York through September 30 to conduct indirect talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the conflict, and resuming negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. These discussions had reportedly shown limited progress following weekend contacts involving Qatari mediators.
Additional support for oil prices came from reports that the Trump administration was considering imposing a ban on US diesel exports. President Donald Trump acknowledged that his administration, in consultations with Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, was examining such a measure. Trump warned that implementing a diesel export ban could push gasoline prices higher, reflecting concerns about tightening refined product supplies in global markets.
Macroeconomic factors also bolstered crude prices. Market expectations shifted regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, with money market pricing indicating that odds of an October Fed rate hike fell to 38% from approximately 70%. Analysts suggested that moderating inflationary pressures alongside continued US economic resilience could allow the Federal Reserve to postpone further interest rate increases.
The prospect of delayed rate hikes supported oil prices by reducing expectations that monetary tightening would dampen economic activity and energy demand. Source: Anadolu Agency (aa.com.tr), October 1, 2026
Source: aa.com.tr