Copper futures settled 0.15% lower at ₹1,399.6 on October 5, 2026, as a stronger US dollar and thin trading volumes weighed on market sentiment, according to analysis from Kedia Advisory. Markets in top consumer China remained closed for a public holiday, contributing to reduced liquidity in the global copper market. The US dollar reached its highest level in more than three months, while a broader global bond selloff pushed borrowing costs across the United States, France, and Japan to multi-decade highs.
These developments dampened risk sentiment and placed additional pressure on industrial metals including copper. Despite the headwinds, some positive factors provided limited support to copper prices. Chinese manufacturing activity showed improvement, with the official Purchasing Managers Index rising to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, signaling a return to expansion territory.
The private RatingDog PMI climbed to a five-month high of 52.1 from 51.5, further indicating strengthening manufacturing conditions in the world's largest copper consumer. Inventory data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange demonstrated significant pre-holiday demand, with copper stocks falling 17.8% week-on-week to 38,744 tonnes, marking the lowest level since January 2024. China's physical copper premium eased to 1,050 yuan per tonne from 1,375 yuan, while the Yangshan import premium increased slightly to $119 per tonne, reflecting changing dynamics in the Chinese copper market.
Supply concerns remained a key factor in the market. Chilean copper production declined 12.8% year-on-year in August to 369,500 tonnes, reflecting the impact of storm-related disruptions and lower ore grades. Supervisors at Chile's Escondida mine rejected a collective contract offer, raising concerns about potential strike-related supply disruptions that could further tighten global copper supplies.
The global refined copper market recorded a 51,000-tonne deficit in July, narrowing from 74,000 tonnes in June. However, refined copper output stood at 2.41 million tonnes in July against consumption of 2.46 million tonnes. Looking at a broader timeframe, the first seven months of 2026 showed a 32,000-tonne surplus compared to a 157,000-tonne surplus during the same period in the previous year, indicating tightening market conditions.
China's unwrought copper imports fell to 382,000 tonnes in August, while imports for the January-August period declined 6.7% year-on-year, reflecting weaker import demand from the world's largest consumer. From a technical perspective, the copper market is experiencing long liquidation pressure, with open interest declining 5.66% to 8,319 contracts as prices fell ₹2.05. Support levels are positioned near ₹1,390.4, with a break below this threshold potentially exposing the ₹1,381.2 level.
Resistance is placed near ₹1,408.3, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward ₹1,417. Source: Kedia Advisory, published by Investing.com on October 5, 2026.
Source: in.investing.com