Europe's benchmark natural gas prices remain close to their highest levels since the end of 2022, as the lack of LNG supply from Qatar compounds the EU's difficulty in filling depleted storage sites ahead of winter, according to Oilprice.com. The front-month contract at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the benchmark for European gas trading, fell 1% as of 9 a.m. Amsterdam time on Thursday, amid a slide in crude oil futures.
Even so, at $96.56 (86.03 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh), the price stands at its highest level since December 2022, when Europe faced its first winter without most Russian pipeline gas supply. EU gas storage sites were 74% full as of October 14, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (AGSI). That is well below the five-year average of about 86% for this time of year, just before the start of the heating season.
With supply concerns growing, European gas prices remain at levels seen during the 2022-2023 energy crisis, as LNG supply from the Middle East has not recovered at the same pace as oil flows. Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said in a note on Thursday: “Unfortunately for the natural gas market, we have not seen a similar recovery in LNG flows from the Persian Gulf as we have with oil.” LNG flows from the Middle East remain about 80% lower than last year's volumes. Patterson added: “The market is increasingly accepting that Persian Gulf LNG could remain largely absent from global markets for much of the Northern Hemisphere winter.” He noted that Europe and Asia will continue to compete for spot LNG supply, keeping gas and spot LNG prices well supported.
Prices remain vulnerable to further spikes if winters turn colder in Europe or Asia, or both, or if another supply disruption hits the market. Consultancy Timera Energy said in its winter gas outlook published this week that Europe is entering winter with lower-than-usual buffers, while Asia has mostly used its demand-side flexibility, creating a risk of late-winter price spikes. The firm's winter 2026/27 outlook assumes Hormuz remains closed through Q4 2026, with gradual reopening through Q1 2027. “Under this scenario, late-winter price upside becomes particularly acute if European stocks run low,” the analysts said.
Sources: Oilprice.com (Michael Kern, October 15, 2026); Dutch TTF front-month futures prices; Gas Infrastructure Europe (AGSI storage data, October 14, 2026); ING (Warren Patterson note, October 15, 2026); Timera Energy (winter gas outlook).
Source: oilprice.com