Lead prices showed resilience on Friday, October 16, with LME lead consolidating near $1,885 per tonne and SHFE lead holding above 16,000 yuan per tonne, according to the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) lead morning meeting minutes published on news.metal.com. On the London Metal Exchange, lead opened at $1,887 per tonne. As the US dollar index weakened, LME lead gradually stopped falling and rebounded, attempting to return to $1,900 per tonne during European trading hours.
The rebound failed, and the metal settled at $1,885 per tonne, down 0.11%. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded lead 2612 contract opened at 16,045 yuan per tonne and fell sharply in early trading to as low as 16,015 yuan per tonne. According to SMM, lead ingot inventory destocking supported prices, and the contract recovered its losses to 16,130 yuan per tonne.
Toward the close, upward momentum faded, and the contract settled at 16,075 yuan per tonne, down 0.12%. Open interest stood at 62,146 lots, up 2,724 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, SHFE lead continued to consolidate, and suppliers in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai offered few quotations.
SMM reported that north-south supply differences persisted for primary lead Ex-works cargoes, with mainstream production-area quotations at premiums of 50-100 yuan per tonne against the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, regional supply was tight, and mainstream production-area secondary refined lead quotations also remained at premiums of 50-100 yuan per tonne to the SMM #1 lead average price. Inventories declined on both exchanges.
As of October 16, LME lead inventory stood at 339,275 mt, down 525 mt from the previous trading day. Total SHFE lead ingot inventory was 50,563 mt, down 5,423 mt from the previous week. On the macro front, SMM noted that China's Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology plan to impose export controls on 40 technologies across artificial intelligence, biomedicine and photovoltaics, of which 14 would be prohibited from export and 26 restricted, with pre-export registration management implemented simultaneously.
Outside China, Fed Chairman Warsh said he would not prejudge the outcome of the upcoming interest rate meeting, and market bets on an October rate hike fell from about 27% to below 15%. SMM also reported that the US federal fiscal deficit for fiscal year 2026 widened to $1.99 trillion, with net interest expenses exceeding $1 trillion for the first time. SMM's outlook is for prices to remain in consolidation.
The agency said the recovery in Chinese lead ingot supply has fallen short of expectations, that both primary and secondary lead face regional supply tightness, and that lead ingot inventories remain low, with spot prices against futures still at premiums. The SHFE lead 2611 and 2612 contracts have formed a backwardation structure, which SMM interprets as a sign of strong price resilience, although the market lacks new upward momentum. Source: Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), lead morning meeting minutes, news.metal.com.
SMM states that its data are processed from public information, market communication and internal database models, are for reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice.
Source: news.metal.com