Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange have surged above the $14,000 per tonne mark, approaching record highs reached earlier in 2026, driven primarily by tightening conditions in the nearby segment of the physical market rather than broad-based sentiment shifts. According to analysis from ING, the forward curve structure has become increasingly stressed as supply constraints mount. The LME copper tom-next spread moved to a premium of $75 per tonne, marking the widest level since January 2026, reflecting an accelerating supply squeeze ahead of potential US import tariffs on refined copper.
The cash/3m copper spread simultaneously traded at a premium of $545 per tonne, providing a clear signal of acute scarcity in spot material availability. The tightening of nearby market conditions has been driven by specific physical flows and inventory dynamics. Shipments destined for the United States ahead of anticipated tariff implementation, combined with robust Chinese buying activity, have depleted inventories held within the LME warehouse network.
Although LME stocks registered a slight increase recently, total inventories remain near multi-month lows according to ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson. Physical market indicators continue to signal limited metal availability, reinforcing the strength evident in forward curve spreads and spot premiums. The constrained supply environment appears likely to provide ongoing support for copper prices in the near term, particularly if end-use demand linked to electrification, data centre expansion, and grid-related infrastructure investment remains resilient.
The structural themes supporting demand from these industrial segments, combined with already constrained prompt supply conditions, position copper to remain well-supported in the current market environment according to the ING analysts.
Source: tradingpedia.com