Analysts have maintained forecasts for oil prices above $80 per barrel in 2026, driven by shipping disruptions linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February, according to a Reuters poll published on August 31, 2026. However, weak demand in China is expected to limit upside potential for crude prices. An August survey of 31 economists and analysts forecast that Brent crude would average $85.08 per barrel in 2026 and U.S. crude at $80.20 per barrel, roughly in line with July's forecasts of $85.22 and $80.14, respectively.
Brent crude has traded mostly between the high $80s and mid-$90s per barrel recently. China's crude oil imports have fallen significantly, reaching near decade-low levels in June, with July imports remaining 24.3% lower than a year earlier. According to Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS Bank, China remains the biggest downside risk as import demand will likely remain sluggish as long as oil hovers above $80 per barrel.
Inventory refilling is expected to occur only at lower oil price levels. The U.S.-Iran war has escalated into attacks on energy and shipping infrastructure across the Gulf region, sharply reducing vessel traffic through Middle Eastern waterways, including the Strait of Hormuz. On August 30, 2026, U.S. forces struck two launchers on Iran's Larak Island, marking the first known U.S. strike on Iran since late July.
Iran responded by attacking two U.S. air bases in Jordan, according to Iranian media citing the Revolutionary Guards. Progress in efforts to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited in August. Iran and Oman are still working on the details of an agreement regarding the waterway and revenue sharing arrangements.
Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group, noted that traders are no longer pricing an imminent total collapse of Gulf exports, but they are also not pricing a swift return to normal operations. Analysts polled by Reuters expect global oil demand to shrink by between 1 million and 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026. The International Energy Agency expects global demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels per day, while OPEC forecasts growth of 580,000 barrels per day, albeit 200,000 barrels per day less than previously projected.
OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies, announced in August a 188,000 barrels per day production increase for September, completing the group's planned rollback of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts introduced in 2023. The Reuters survey showed analysts expected the global oil market to remain in deficit in 2026, with estimates ranging from 1.65 million to 3.5 million barrels per day. OPEC+'s ability to sway oil prices has waned six months into the Iran war, as supply disruptions, especially in the Middle East, overshadow output decisions, while reduced imports by China help balance markets.
Source: Reuters poll reported by Global Banking & Finance Review, August 31, 2026.
Source: globalbankingandfinance.com