The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its global oil demand growth projection for 2026 to about 200,000 b/d, which it described as around 200,000 b/d lower than its previous estimate, according to Engine (engine.online), citing OPEC's October oil market report. The revision marks a sixth consecutive downward adjustment to OPEC's global oil demand forecast, as Middle East hostilities continue to reshape global energy consumption patterns. OPEC sees global oil demand reaching about 105.72 million b/d in 2026, including about 46.12 million b/d from OECD economies.
OPEC expects OECD oil demand to ease by about 0.2 mb/d in 2026, while non-OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.4 mb/d year-on-year. OPEC forecasts non-OECD demand to average around 59.60 million b/d this year, about 100,000 b/d lower than its previous projection. For 2027, OPEC expects global oil consumption to grow by 2.6 million b/d, to average 108.28 million b/d, slightly higher than its September projection.
Demand for OPEC+ crude is forecast to average 42.1 million b/d in 2026, about 100,000 b/d lower than last month's projection. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition expects demand for OPEC+ crude to reach 43.9 million b/d in 2027. On the supply side, total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 39.07 million b/d last month, about 900,000 b/d higher than in August.
Saudi Arabia and Iraq increased output by 744,000 b/d and 386,000 b/d respectively, to about 8 million b/d and 3.9 million b/d. Kazakhstan raised production by 22,000 b/d to about 1.9 million b/d. Iran and Kuwait reduced output by 99,000 b/d and 140,000 b/d, to about 2 million b/d and 1.8 million b/d respectively.
Russia, the group's leading producer, cut production by 38,000 b/d to about 8.6 million b/d, as its energy production and refining facilities continued to come under Ukrainian drone strikes. OPEC expects non-OPEC production to grow by 600,000 b/d, with output averaging around 54.8 million b/d this year, in line with its previous estimate. OPEC said the main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the United States, Canada and Argentina.
The OPEC+ group comprises the core 12 OPEC members, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan. Source: Engine (engine.online), "OPEC reduces oil demand growth forecast again," October 14, 2026, based on OPEC's October oil market report.
Source: engine.online