U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright claimed on Tuesday that oil flows from the Middle East have normalized, citing statistics that appear to contradict available ship-tracking data and official government assessments. In a post on X, Secretary Wright stated that thanks to coordinated efforts by the U.S. military and Gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz currently stands at almost 9 million barrels per day.
He further noted that when combined with 5 to 7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day. Wright also claimed that on Sunday alone, over 20 million barrels left the Arabian Gulf region, which he characterized as above pre-conflict averages. However, analysts and tanker traffic monitoring services have questioned how the U.S. administration arrived at these figures.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), traffic at the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained. In its Tuesday Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA stated: We have increased our estimates of Middle East shut-in crude oil production in the coming months compared with our July forecast due to continued severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits, which we assume persist through August.
Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, expressed skepticism regarding Wright's claims, telling CNN: It is not possible to reconcile the disparity between what we see and what he is quoting. Kpler data showed that vessel traffic at the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline as diplomatic hopes for a U.S.-Iran agreement diminished. According to shipping data from Kpler cited by Reuters, only six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in either direction on Monday, down from an 11-ship average over the preceding 10 days.
This significant drop in vessel transits suggests continued constraints on oil transportation through one of the world's most critical chokepoints. The discrepancy between government statements and independent tanker tracking data highlights ongoing tensions regarding Middle East crude oil exports and the impact of geopolitical constraints on global energy flows. Source: Oilprice.com, based on reporting by Tsvetana Paraskova.
Source: oilprice.com