US natural gas supply growth is anticipated to exceed rising demand during the winter season, leaving the market well supplied even as liquefied natural gas exports climb, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA). This favorable supply-demand balance is projected to place downward pressure on prices compared with the previous winter. The NGSA forecasts winter 2026-2027 production to reach 112.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), representing an increase from 109.9 Bcf/d during the previous winter and well above the three-year average of 105 Bcf/d.
Despite this production growth, LNG exports are expected to rise by 2.2 Bcf/d, indicating a significant expansion in liquefaction capacity utilization and international demand. The positive supply outlook suggests that natural gas storage withdrawals are expected to ease during the winter heating season. This stands in contrast to periods of tight market conditions when producers and end-users rely more heavily on inventory draws to meet peak demand.
The combination of robust domestic production growth and easing storage requirements indicates a well-balanced market with reduced price volatility risks compared to the previous winter. The supply growth is supported by increased production across multiple basins, including the Appalachian Basin, and rising associated gas volumes from oil drilling operations. As domestic supply continues to expand and meets both domestic consumption needs and growing LNG export requirements, market participants anticipate a more stable pricing environment for the upcoming winter season.
Source: Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA), reported by Natural Gas Intelligence
Source: naturalgasintel.com