ICE Brent crude has rebounded to $87 per barrel amid a fresh escalation of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, with analysts warning that a further rally toward the $100 per barrel threshold remains firmly on the table, according to a report published by OilPrice.com on August 11, 2026. The renewed pressure on global oil markets stems from a near-complete halt in Iranian crude loadings. According to Bloomberg data cited by OilPrice.com, not a single Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) was observed loading at Iran's Kharg Island terminal during the first ten days of August.
Data from shipping analytics firm Kpler indicates that Iranian crude held in floating storage has remained relatively constant at around 40 million barrels, double the level recorded in early July when navigation through the strait was still unimpeded. Diplomacy aimed at reopening the Hormuz Strait has suffered a fresh setback after US President Donald Trump demanded compensation from Iran for deaths across decades of conflicts, in response to Tehran's own demand for payment for wartime damage. The move further complicated negotiations that had been partially advancing through Iran-Oman diplomatic channels, according to Reuters.
On the security front, three sailors were killed in a suspected Houthi attack on an Egyptian-owned cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while a Pakistani-flagged container ship, the Vela Nova, was struck by a US helicopter missile in the Gulf of Oman, Reuters reported. In a separate incident, Yemen's Houthi militia attacked Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, which has a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day, just two days after Riyadh signed a collective-defense agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. The attack, described as the second successful strike in less than a month, has kept the facility shut until September.
Demand signals from China are adding another layer of complexity to the market outlook. Independent Chinese refiners, known as teapots, are expected to boost their purchases of Iranian and Russian crude in the coming days, driven by a record stock draw of 35 million barrels in the northeastern Shandong province during July, equivalent to a drawdown rate of 1.1 million barrels per day, Bloomberg reported. Independent refinery run rates are currently running at around 50%, following multi-year highs seen in June and July, with the gradual reopening of Chinese product exports pushing utilization rates higher.
On the supply side, OPEC output rose by 1.17 million barrels per day to reach 19.9 million barrels per day, according to Reuters, as Gulf producers partially restored production following a multi-decade low recorded in May. Most of the increase came from Iraq and Kuwait, though overall output still trails official quota targets. Libya's Zawiya refinery, with a capacity of 120,000 barrels per day, also suffered disruptions after a fuel-storage tank caught fire, two days after a separate drone strike damaged another tank at the same facility.
The country's National Oil Corporation declared an emergency and is weighing a potential complete halt to operations. In a significant infrastructure move, US energy companies Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) and HF Sinclair (NYSE: DINO) jointly approved the $5 billion Western Gateway pipeline system, designed to transport refined products from St. Louis, Missouri to California.
BP (NYSE: BP) agreed to acquire a 70% interest in the Calypso deepwater project offshore Trinidad and Tobago from Australia's Woodside (ASX: WDS), taking full ownership of the 3.5 trillion cubic feet asset. Italian energy major ENI (BIT: ENI) signed a strategic partnership agreement with US driller APA (NASDAQ: APA) for Block 6 offshore Uruguay, with ENI funding most of the exploration work planned for 2027. French upstream specialist Maurel et Prom (EPA: MAU), majority-owned by Indonesia's Pertamina, agreed to acquire Gran Tierra Energy's entire South American portfolio, primarily in Colombia and Ecuador, for a total consideration of $1.33 billion.
ADNOC, Abu Dhabi's national oil company, acquired six VLCCs and five VLGCs on the secondary market for $1.3 billion to expand its export shipping capacity. Separately, ADNOC Gas is exploring a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas export terminal with a capacity of 9.6 million tonnes per annum on the UAE's east coast in Fujairah, connected to western gas fields by pipeline, with the objective of minimizing Hormuz exposure entirely. Beyond oil, the crisis is reverberating across multiple commodity markets.
The FAO food price index climbed to 131.1 points in July, its highest level since January 2023, driven by Black Sea shipping disruptions, crop heat damage and higher crude costs. Wheat prices rose 6% versus June. On the metals front, LME aluminium prices climbed for a seventh consecutive session to a seven-week high of $3,350 per tonne, with Middle Eastern supply disruptions cited as a key factor tightening the market.
Europe's energy sector is also under strain. A massive swarm of jellyfish forced French state utility EDF to shut three reactors totaling 2.7 gigawatts of capacity at its Gravelines nuclear plant. Meanwhile, barge traffic along the Rhine River has halted after water levels at the key Kaub chokepoint fell to a record-low 17 centimeters, cutting off several German and Swiss ports from refined product supply.
US President Trump extended the Jones Act waiver for another 90 days but introduced tighter controls, requiring exemptions to be reviewed on a voyage-by-voyage basis following backlash from domestic shipbuilders after 208 waivers were issued in less than five months. Japan's trade ministry is also considering financial support measures to help refiners bear additional transportation costs for crude and naphtha shipments that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Source: OilPrice.com, Tom Kool, August 11, 2026.
Source: oilprice.com