China's 10-year government bond yield remained stable at 1.67% on September 24, 2026, staying near its lowest levels since July 2025, according to data from Trading Economics. The relatively low yield persisted despite significant global bond market volatility and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the extension of the US-China trade truce. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the United States and China had agreed to extend their trade truce by two months through January 10, 2027.
However, China has not yet publicly confirmed the expiration date of this extension, and the agreed timeline falls short of the three-to-six-month continuation that some US officials had previously suggested. This ambiguity continues to weigh on market sentiment. The stability in Chinese government bond yields contrasts sharply with broader global fixed-income market dynamics.
A global bond selloff has gripped international markets, driven by stronger-than-expected US economic data and weak demand at recent US Treasury auctions. These factors have pushed yields across much of the US curve to their highest levels in nearly two decades. Consequently, the yield premium of 10-year US Treasuries over Chinese government bonds has widened to levels close to record highs, reflecting the significant divergence in monetary policy and economic outlook between the two countries.
Over the past month, China's 10-year government bond yield has declined by 0.02 percentage points and is 0.23 percentage points lower than it was one year ago, based on over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this maturity, according to Trading Economics. Historically, the China 10-Year Government Bond Yield reached an all-time high of 4.80% in September 2007. The broader Chinese government bond yield curve showed mixed movements on September 24, 2026.
The 2-year note yield stood at 1.25%, the 3-year note at 1.30%, the 5-year note at 1.40%, the 7-year note at 1.49%, the 20-year bond at 2.09%, and the 30-year bond at 2.12%. The 52-week bill yield was quoted at 1.22%. Trading Economics' global macro models and analyst expectations suggest the 10-year yield is expected to trade at 1.72% by the end of the current quarter.
Looking further ahead, the consensus forecast projects the yield to reach 1.59% within the next 12 months. Traders and investors should note that mainland China's financial markets will suspend trading from September 25 through September 27, 2026, for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Source: Trading Economics
Source: tradingeconomics.com