Shanghai Metals Market reported on September 24, 2026, that the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract consolidated above the 410,000 yuan/mt level following a release of macroeconomic pressure triggered by the US Federal Reserve's recent rate decision. Futures Market Performance The SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 410,680 yuan/mt during the daytime session on September 23, with a settlement reference price of 412,760 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 62,600 lots with open interest of 17,300 lots, declining 4,582 lots on the day due to long liquidation.
In the night session on September 24, the contract opened lower but subsequently rebounded. As of 02:15 local time, the latest quotation stood at 411,310 yuan/mt, down 1,450 yuan or 0.35 percent from the previous day's settlement, with a trading range of 408,190 to 412,690 yuan/mt. Night session volume reached 24,500 lots with open interest of 15,700 lots, down 1,662 lots on the day driven by long liquidation.
On the London Metal Exchange, 3-month tin closed at $54,255/mt on September 22, rising 98 yuan or 0.18 percent, with cash-3M backwardation of $199.59/mt. Macroeconomic Drivers The US Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent on September 16, marking the first increase since July 2023. The September dot plot indicated that 12 Fed members expect one additional rate hike before year-end.
CME-implied probability data as of September 23 showed a 54.2 percent probability of a 25 basis point hike in October, with a 45.8 percent probability of no change. The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.957 percent, down 3 basis points. The US dollar index closed at 100.29 on September 22 and rose 0.23 percent to 100.77 on September 23.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.29 percent in a single day on September 21, representing its best performance since August. Strength in the AI and semiconductor sectors spilled over into electronic metals demand. Meanwhile, China and the US maintained close communication on tariff reduction topics, and expectations of Middle East de-escalation increased following Saudi Arabia's restart of its east-west oil pipeline.
Supply and Demand Dynamics On the supply side, production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State have only recovered to 40 to 50 percent of pre-ban levels, with the rainy season's deep drainage requirements and civilian explosives restrictions limiting output release. August tin concentrate imports, measured in physical content, totaled 19,332 metric tonnes, up 88.40 percent year-over-year, with 7,395 metric tonnes sourced from Myanmar, up 253.55 percent, and 3,763 metric tonnes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, up 54.07 percent. Yunnan 40 percent tin concentrate treatment charges remained flat at 18,000 yuan/mt.
On the demand side, the August solder operating rate reached 72.8 percent. Integrated circuits grew 20.6 percent and new energy vehicles grew 21.9 percent during the January to August period. AI computing tin demand is projected to rise from 19,300 metric tonnes in 2026 to 41,100 metric tonnes in 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 16 percent.
However, smartphones fell 22.3 percent and solar cells declined 12.9 percent, remaining weak. Market Outlook With macroeconomic pressure easing following the Fed rate decision, hard supply constraints at the ore end, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling demand ahead of the double festival holiday period, and the positive resonance from semiconductor and AI strength, SMM analysts expect the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract to consolidate above 410,000 yuan/mt, with resistance noted at 415,000 yuan/mt above and support at 410,000 yuan/mt below. Source: Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), published September 24, 2026.
Source: news.metal.com