Cochilco, Chile's copper commission, has revised its national production outlook sharply lower. According to a MINING.COM report, as aggregated by Nimatron, Chilean copper output is now expected to fall 8.4% in 2026, a steeper decline than the 2.6% drop projected in August. Chile is forecast to produce 4.94 million tonnes in 2026 and 5.08 million tonnes in 2027, down from August projections of 5.27 million and 5.55 million tonnes respectively.
Year-to-date data show the scale of the slowdown. Chile produced 3.63 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2026, down 8.5% year-on-year. According to the same source, BHP's Escondida and Spence operations, together with Codelco, accounted for 77% of the net national decline.
On prices, Cochilco raised its average copper price forecast for 2026 to $6.18 per lb from $5.95 per lb. Its 2027 forecast was lifted by 17% to $5.95 per lb from $5.10 per lb. Commenting on its projections, Claudia Rodríguez said: 'The surpluses we project are small and can change with operational delays.' The source does not specify her role.
Cochilco projects a global refined copper surplus of 144,000 tonnes in 2026, equal to 0.5% of consumption, rising to 215,000 tonnes in 2027, or 0.8% of consumption. Inventories and physical market signals point to tight near-term conditions. Total recorded copper stocks across COMEX, LME and SHFE stood at 1.05 million tonnes, with COMEX holding almost 70% of that volume.
SHFE stocks fell 18% during the week to 44,612 tonnes. China's Yangshan import premium reached $205 per tonne, while LME cash copper traded at a $210 per tonne backwardation over the three-month contract. In a separate month-end review, MINING.COM reported that copper closed October at $6.47 per lb, down 1.4% on the month but up 15% year-to-date.
The same review noted a broad commodity selloff in October, with the MINING.COM Top 50 mining companies losing $226 billion in market value over the month. All figures are as reported in the original source at the time of publication and have not been independently verified.
Source: nimatron.com