Demand for key energy minerals including copper, battery materials and rare earths continued to grow strongly in 2025, driven by accelerating deployment of clean energy technologies, according to the International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026. Global battery demand grew by over 35% in 2025, surpassing 1.5 TWh, with battery storage emerging as a major new driver alongside electric vehicles. Solar PV broke new installation records during the year.
As a result, demand for key energy minerals has grown at close to 10% per year on average in recent years, significantly outpacing demand growth for base metals, which averaged around 1% annually. The energy sector drove approximately 75% of demand growth across key energy minerals in 2025, up from 70% in 2024. Lithium demand stood out as particularly robust, increasing by around 25% per year on average over the past two years.
Supply concentration across energy minerals reached new record levels in 2025, raising fresh concerns about the resilience of critical mineral supply chains. The average share of the top refined supplier climbed to 70% in 2025, up from 68% in 2020. Indonesia for nickel and China for most other key energy minerals together accounted for over three-quarters of total supply growth between 2023 and 2025.
In several markets, including manganese, nickel and graphite, almost all supply growth originated from the leading supplier. Rare earth refining represented a notable exception, with new projects in the United States and production increases in Malaysia contributing to a modest decline in supply concentration between 2023 and 2025, a development the IEA attributes to targeted policy and investment support. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has further exposed the vulnerabilities of concentrated supply chains.
Before the conflict, exports from the region accounted for more than 10% of total aluminium supply for the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Mexico, and just under 20% for the United States. The region also produces one-quarter of global sulphur supply, with half of global seaborne sulphur trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions to exports have affected countries that rely on imported sulphur to produce sulphuric acid, a key input for fertiliser production, the leaching of copper, nickel and cobalt, and the production of rare earths and battery chemicals.
Helium production in Qatar, the world's largest exporter of the gas, was also disrupted, with consequences for semiconductor manufacturing and medical technologies. Despite robust demand fundamentals, investment in critical minerals fell by 9% in 2025, marking the first substantial decline since 2020, according to IEA analysis based on data from S&P Capital IQ covering 24 major mining companies. The decline was largely concentrated among companies focused on battery materials.
Lithium, nickel and cobalt-oriented companies drove the overall decrease, with battery material specialists recording a 20% investment reduction. Lithium specialists were particularly affected, cutting investment by around 40% following several years of strong growth. The IEA identified shifting battery chemistry preferences, oversupply-driven price weakness and policy uncertainty in key markets as the main factors weighing on investor confidence in battery material segments.
Copper bucked the broader downward trend, with companies focused on the metal registering an 8% year-on-year increase in investment, reflecting sustained confidence in copper's long-term role in electricity systems. Exploration spending mirrored these divergent trends, falling by 10% overall, with lithium and nickel each recording drops of approximately 40%, while copper exploration remained steady. Source: IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, IEA, Paris, 2026.
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Source: iea.org