Targeting critical minerals with relatively small market sizes could offer one of the most cost-effective ways to strengthen global supply chains, provided that governments back new projects with the right policies, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its annual Global Critical Minerals Outlook. The Agency highlights what it terms "strategic minor minerals" as becoming increasingly important as demand from artificial intelligence, semiconductors, robotics, defence, and clean energy technologies continues to grow. Among the minerals facing the greatest supply risks, the IEA identifies gallium, magnet rare earth elements, yttrium, graphite, tungsten, tellurium, cobalt, and germanium, citing their high geographic concentration, limited substitutes, and growing importance across multiple industries.
After several years of price declines, critical mineral prices recovered in 2025 and early 2026 as supply tightened amid concerns over disruptions stemming from concentrated supply chains. Strategic minor minerals led the gains, with prices more than doubling in many cases. Tungsten stood out dramatically, rising sixfold as demand from the electronics, aerospace, and defence sectors increased alongside tighter export controls.
The IEA report also notes that export restrictions have created sharp price gaps between China — the world's top producer of many of these minerals — and overseas markets. In Europe, gallium and heavy rare earth prices are now approximately five times higher than in China, while germanium prices are nearly three times higher, according to the Agency. On the supply side, refining capacity became even more concentrated in 2025, with China accounting for most supply growth across minerals including graphite, manganese, and nickel.
Excluding rare earths, the leading refining country accounted for 72% of global refined supply in 2025, up from 70% two years earlier. Rare earths represented an exception, with new refining capacity coming online in the United States and higher production in Malaysia helping reduce concentration slightly. The IEA underscores that the risks of concentrated supply chains became evident after China introduced export controls on heavy rare earths and subsequently expanded restrictions to battery materials, graphite products, and battery manufacturing technologies.
Those measures disrupted downstream industries, with some automakers temporarily reducing production due to shortages of rare earth materials. Tungsten receives particular attention in the report as an example of a strategically important mineral with a highly concentrated supply chain. China controls approximately 80% of global tungsten mine production and dominates downstream processing, making it a critical supplier to the aerospace, defence, and electronics industries.
As Western governments seek to diversify supply, companies are moving to restart domestic production after more than a decade without active tungsten mining in either the United States or Canada. American Tungsten (TSX-V: TUNG) is advancing plans to restart the historic IMA Mine in Idaho, while Northcliff Resources (TSX: NCF) is developing the Sisson Project in New Brunswick, Canada, home to one of the world's largest undeveloped tungsten deposits. Underground drilling at IMA is currently underway to expand the mine's known mineralised system, while Makenita Resources (CSE: KENY) is evaluating potential drilling near the Sisson deposit.
Broader diversification efforts are also underway. Yukon-based explorer White Gold (TSX-V: WGO) has added tungsten to its portfolio, while Avalon Advanced Materials (TSX: AVL) is focusing on a suite of rare earth and critical minerals in Canada's Northwest Territories. Connected Minerals (ASX: CML) is pursuing a niobium project in Angola, which the company compares geologically to globally recognised deposits in Brazil.
On the policy front, the IEA argues that supply diversification does not necessarily require massive investment. Because many strategic mineral markets are relatively small, bringing a limited number of new projects into production could significantly improve supply security. As a concrete example, the Agency estimates that diversifying global magnet rare earth supply chains would require approximately US$60 billion in investment over the next decade — a figure it describes as modest compared with the potential economic costs of major supply disruptions.
To encourage private investment, the IEA recommends that governments deploy targeted measures including grants, concessional loans, loan guarantees, strategic stockpiles, and long-term offtake agreements. The Agency also stresses that support should be tailored to each specific mineral, recognising that capital-intensive mining projects require different incentive structures from refining and downstream processing operations. The report concludes that while strategic minor minerals represent relatively small markets in absolute terms, they underpin industries worth trillions of dollars, making them increasingly central to economic and national security as global demand for advanced technologies continues to accelerate.
Source: IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, as reported by Mining.com.au (Jackson Chen, 21 July 2026).
Source: mining.com.au