The global supply of refined lead metal is forecast to rise to a surplus of 163kt in 2027, according to the latest data from the Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), as reported by Batteries International on October 22, 2026. Worldwide supply of refined lead is already expected to exceed demand by 90kt by the end of 2026. The ILZSG presented its latest forecasts at its 71st two-day session, held on October 15-16.
Global demand for refined lead is forecast to increase by 0.9% to 13.79 million tonnes in 2026 and by 1% to 13.92 million tonnes in 2027, according to the group. On the supply side, world lead mine output is forecast to fall by 2.8% to 4.44 million tonnes in 2026, before recovering by 2.9% to 4.58 million tonnes in 2027. The ILZSG expects a similar trend in China, where mine output is forecast to decline by 1% in 2026, followed by a recovery of more than 4% in 2027.
Demand trends vary by region. In China, lead usage is expected to grow by only 0.2% in 2026. Stable demand from the replacement battery market is being offset by declines in lead acid battery exports and vehicle production.
European demand is expected to rise by 1.3% in 2026, mainly due to increases in apparent usage in Germany, Greece, Poland, Slovenia and Spain, which more than offset declines in France and the UK. Usage is also forecast to rise in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico and the United States, while it is expected to decrease in South Korea and Turkey. Refined lead output is expected to increase in 2026 in India, South Korea, Turkey and Brazil, where new secondary capacity was commissioned in 2025.
However, the ILZSG said these gains will be partially offset by a reduction in China. In 2027, refined supply is forecast to keep rising in India and South Korea, to recover in China, and to decline marginally in Europe. Batteries International previously reported a warning from Tianneng Power International of a possible fall in half-year profit of up to 66%, as high raw material costs weighed on its core lead acid battery business.
The China-based lead battery major, part of the Tianneng Group, nevertheless said its long-term prospects remain strong. Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) data, as reported by Batteries International (batteriesinternational.com). Photo: ILZSG.
Source: batteriesinternational.com