Iraq's new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has announced that the country plans to raise crude oil production to between 8 million and 10 million barrels per day within six years, a target that analysts believe could finally be achievable and may allow Iraq to surpass Saudi Arabia as the Middle East's top oil producer. Historically, Iraq has made periodic promises of large production increases that never materialized. Prior to the Strait of Hormuz blockade that began in February 2026, Iraq was producing 4.14 million bpd, compared to Saudi Arabia's 10.1 million bpd.
Iraq's crude oil production has averaged 2.38 million bpd from 1973 until 2026, while Saudi Arabia's has averaged 8.29 million bpd over the same period, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Three key factors suggest Iraq's latest production target is realistic.
First, Iraq possesses sufficient oil reserves to support such production levels. According to EIA figures, Iraq holds approximately 145 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves, nearly 18 percent of the Middle East's total and around 9 percent of the world's proven reserves. The International Energy Agency estimates ultimately recoverable resources across all of Iraq, including the Kurdistan region, total about 246 billion barrels of crude and natural gas liquids.
These reserve estimates fall within parameters outlined in Iraq's government-sponsored Integrated National Energy Strategy launched in 2013. Second, Iraq has been moving toward accommodating international demands for reduced corruption, which prompted Western oil firms to exit the country in recent years. Transparency International had previously ranked Iraq among the worst countries on corruption and governance indicators.
As corruption practices have declined and new Western firms have returned to Iraq, major oil companies have renewed their involvement in Iraqi energy projects. Third and most critically, French supermajor TotalEnergies' USD 27 billion four-pronged mega-project, ratified in 2023, is expected to play a crucial role. One component will dramatically increase the amount of associated gas captured during oil drilling, reducing Iraq's need to use oil for domestic power generation and freeing more crude for export.
Another part will increase production from the Ratawi oil field from roughly 60,000 bpd to 120,000 bpd initially, with an ultimate target of 210,000 bpd. Most importantly, the project will stabilize and boost pressure at Iraq's biggest oil fields through the Common Seawater Supply Project, which treats and redirects seawater to these sites. Based on calculations using Iraq's super-giant fields and their original peak plateau targets outlined in Technical Service Contracts, total production from these major fields alone could reach approximately 11.5 million bpd.
This comprises Rumaila at 2.1 million bpd, West Qurna 2 at 1.8 million bpd, West Qurna 1 at 1.6 million bpd, Majnoon at 1.8 million bpd, Zubair at 1.2 million bpd, Kirkuk at 1 million bpd, and Halfaya, East Baghdad, Garraf, and Badra combined at 2 million bpd. These peak targets assume a functioning seawater supply system, adequate sustained investment, and involvement of technologically advanced oil firms. This calculation does not include Iraq's other 115 oil fields or fields in the north administered by the semi-autonomous Kurdish regional government.
Source: Oilprice.com, article by Simon Watkins published September 7, 2026.
Source: oilprice.com