Shanghai Futures Exchange tin futures closed September 4 with modest gains of 0.28%, settling at 416,460 yuan per metric ton, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). The most-traded SN2610 contract opened at 419,200, reached a high of 420,250 and a low of 415,490 before closing at 416,460, representing a gain of 1,160 yuan from the prior settlement of 415,300. Open interest declined by 1,300 lots to 37,600 lots on trading volume of 99,500 lots.
In overnight trading (closing at 01:00 on September 5), the contract opened at 414,510 and closed at 417,440, giving back part of the daytime gains with a 0.20% decline. London Metal Exchange tin traded slightly lower on September 4, with three-month tin closing at $54,850 per metric ton, down $50 or 0.09% from the previous session. The sideways movement reflects a market consolidating within the 413,000-420,000 yuan range.
Inventory dynamics showed mixed signals across major markets. LME tin inventory rose to 5,470 metric tons on September 4, up 25 metric tons from 5,445 metric tons on September 3. However, cancelled warrants reached 1,450 metric tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio rising to 26.51% from 20.84%, marking a new stage high.
This indicates that nearly 30% of warrants are pending withdrawal, suggesting potential future supply tightness. SHFE tin warrants decreased slightly to 4,657 metric tons on September 4, down 8 metric tons from the previous day. For the week of August 30 through September 4, SHFE weekly tin inventory totaled 6,499 metric tons, representing an increase of 118 metric tons or 1.85%.
Macroeconomic factors influenced the tin market as the US August nonfarm payrolls figure came in at 162,000 jobs, well above expectations of 56,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. The stronger-than-expected employment data shifted interest rate expectations, with CME FedWatch showing the probability of a September rate hike rising to 58.4% from 49.4%. The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.761% from 4.780%.
Earlier dovish signals from Fed Governor Waller suggested the possibility of no September hike if August inflation data supports it. Crude oil markets remained firm, with WTI holding above $91 per barrel and Brent crude trading around $95. Upcoming key economic dates include the US August Consumer Price Index announcement on September 11 and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for September 15-16.
Market fundamentals reflected conflicting pressures on tin prices. Hard constraints on imported ore supply persisted alongside a slight buildup in China's social inventory. Strength in overseas technology stocks provided some support for computing-power metals, and cooling expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in September benefited overall risk appetite.
However, weakness in July downstream orders and persistent fear of high prices kept purchasing patterns focused on just-in-time procurement throughout the month. SMM analysts project SHFE tin will consolidate within the 413,000-425,000 yuan range this week, with particular attention on whether the key support level at 410,000 yuan can hold. Looking ahead to the dual economic events of the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, analysts assess the probability of a structural directional breakout as low.
Short-term trading is expected to focus primarily on intraday swings rather than larger directional moves. Source: Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), September 4, 2026
Source: news.metal.com