Morgan Stanley has maintained its Brent crude oil price forecasts, projecting the benchmark at $110 per barrel for the second quarter of 2026 and $100 per barrel in the third quarter, with prices expected to decline to $80 per barrel in 2027, according to a report from Reuters. The investment bank expects oil supply chains to require several months to normalize even if a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz can be successfully negotiated. Under Morgan Stanley's base-case scenario, exports through the strategic chokepoint are anticipated to remain at depressed levels in April, recover approximately 70 percent of lost volumes between May and July, and return to normal steady-state levels by October.
Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel on Monday as the U.S. Navy prepared to impose a blockade on vessels traveling to and from Iran via the Strait of Hormuz, potentially constraining Iranian oil exports following failed negotiations between Washington and Tehran to end the military conflict. Brent crude futures traded at $102.23 per barrel as of 0810 GMT, while U.S.
West Texas Intermediate crude was quoted at $103.88 per barrel. Middle Eastern crude producers, including Kuwait and Iraq, have substantially increased official selling prices for Asian buyers in May. Saudi Arabia set the price of its Arab Light crude to Asian markets at a record premium of $19.50 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, reflecting the tightening supply outlook.
Market analysts anticipate that the disruption to global oil production will shift the crude market into a supply deficit position for 2026, reversing earlier forecasts that had predicted a comfortable oversupply in the market prior to the conflict. Source: Reuters, as reported by EnergyNow.com on April 14, 2026.
Source: energynow.com