Russia has downgraded its oil output forecast for 2026 to a 17-year low, according to a government draft forecast reviewed by Reuters. The revised projections reflect the ongoing impact of the war with Ukraine on the nation's energy sector. In its base case scenario, the Russian government expects crude oil production to decline by 17.2 million metric tons this year to 494.2 million tons, equivalent to 9.88 million barrels per day.
This represents the lowest production level since 2009. The draft forecasts, which are expected to be finalized at the end of September and will inform Russia's budget planning, have reduced oil production estimates for 2026-2029 by between 16 million and 20 million tons compared to previous projections published in May. Crude production is expected to recover to 500 million tons in 2027, but this will still be 16 million tons below the previous forecast.
Output in 2028 and 2029 is anticipated to rise further, yet will remain below 2025 levels. The production decline stems from multiple pressures on Russia's energy sector. Since the war began in February 2022, the European Union has banned most Russian oil and fuel imports, eliminating a crucial revenue source for Moscow.
Additionally, intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's oil refineries in recent months have significantly reduced fuel production, triggering gasoline shortages across the country. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged in June that oil production had fallen since the start of the year, attributing the decline to unplanned maintenance at refineries. The reduction in fuel output caused by drone attacks has led to an increase in crude oil exports, primarily directed toward China and India.
According to the draft forecast, Russia's crude oil exports could reach 244.7 million tons in 2026, up from 230.8 million tons in 2025 and 7.5 million tons above the previous outlook. Crude oil exports are expected to decline to 232.5 million tons in 2027 and then fall sharply to 216.6 million tons in 2028-2029. To address domestic market shortages, Russia introduced a ban on diesel exports in July 2026, in addition to existing restrictions on overseas sales of gasoline and jet fuel.
The Russian government sees fuel exports falling by 27.3 million tons this year to 98.5 million tons, a figure 24.1 million tons below its previous forecast. While fuel exports are projected to rise to 113.1 million tons in 2027, they will remain almost 13 million tons below the 2025 level and 21 million tons below the previous forecast. Source: Reuters
Source: reuters.com