PRI

U.S. Steel, Copper and Aluminum Prices Surge Amid Tariff Implementation; Mixed Production Results

Construction material prices in the United States have posted significant gains through August 2026, driven by a combination of tariff policies and global commodity market pressures, according to original research from StartBusinessByState citing Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price data and world benchmarks from the International Monetary Fund and Eurostat. U.S. producer prices for steel mill products increased 23.4 percent over the year to August 2026, compared with a 7.8 percent rise in EU steel prices over the same period, leaving approximately 15.6 percentage points of the U.S. increase unmatched abroad. The divergence reflects the impact of Section 232 tariffs set at 50 percent on steel products, which have been in effect since the June 2025 rate increase.

Since February 2026, when emergency tariffs were struck down and temporary measures were imposed, U.S. steel prices have climbed 17.2 percent. Copper and brass mill shapes in the U.S. rose 20.9 percent over the year, but this increase proved modest compared to global copper price movements. The IMF world copper price jumped 38.6 percent over the same period, while U.S. prices advanced only 18.4 percent, meaning the world benchmark outpaced domestic prices by 20.2 percentage points.

World copper demand has been pushed higher by electrical grids, electric vehicles and data centers, combined with constrained mine supply. Refined copper was not covered by the initial Section 232 copper tariff implemented in August 2025, though Commerce was asked to evaluate whether additional duties of 15 percent in 2027 and 30 percent in 2028 are warranted. Aluminum mill shapes demonstrated the steepest U.S.-only price increase, rising 40.5 percent over the year to July 2026 compared with a 21.2 percent increase in world aluminum prices, a gap of 19.4 percentage points.

The 50 percent Section 232 aluminum duty, implemented through various proclamations in 2025 and 2026, appears to account for a substantial portion of this divergence. Softwood lumber prices increased 11.8 percent over the year, reflecting both a 10 percent Section 232 duty imposed in October 2025 and underlying market dynamics tied to housing construction activity and mill supply constraints. Lumber also remains subject to existing antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian imports.

The stated objective of the Section 232 metals tariffs is national security and maintenance of domestic production capacity for defense and critical infrastructure. Results have been mixed. Steel output, measured by the Federal Reserve's industrial production index, advanced 2.8 percent over the year to August 2026, with capacity utilization reaching 73.4 percent, up 1.6 percentage points from a year earlier.

Steel-mill employment stood at 86.0 thousand in August, a gain of only 0.4 thousand from the prior year. Aluminum production, by contrast, declined 9.3 percent over the same period, while copper and other nonferrous output fell 0.3 percent. Aluminum sector employment rose 2.4 thousand to 122.9 thousand.

The producer price data reflect total price changes from all causes, including tariffs, world commodity prices, energy costs, labor expense and demand fluctuations. The research cautions that the tariff impact cannot be isolated from these broader factors. U.S. producer price indexes for mill products include processing and fabrication costs and thus would not move in lockstep with raw metal prices even absent any tariffs.

Exchange rate movements, which have weakened the dollar, also contribute to price movements for imported materials. The tariff framework applying to these materials has undergone multiple revisions since February 2026, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize the previously imposed duties.

A temporary 10 percent Section 122 surcharge under the Trade Act of 1974 took effect on February 24, 2026 for up to 150 days to address balance-of-payments concerns. In April 2026, Section 232 metals duties were restructured at 50 percent on steel, aluminum and most copper articles, with 25 percent applied to listed derivative products. Further adjustments in June 2026 moved certain agricultural equipment and residential HVAC systems to a temporary 15 percent derivative rate through December 31, 2027.

As of July 24, 2026, USTR Section 301 tariffs ranging from 10 to 12.5 percent on goods from 60 economies replaced the Section 122 surcharge, with exemptions for goods covered by Section 232 and USMCA-qualifying shipments from Canada and Mexico. For construction contractors and material buyers, StartBusinessByState recommends pricing jobs off current material quotes and considering escalation clauses tied to published indices such as the BLS series for extended-duration projects. The variance between domestic and world prices underscores the importance of distinguishing tariff costs from underlying commodity price movements when budgeting materials.

Source: startbusinessbystate.com

Would you like to discuss this with one of our FT Specialists?

FT Mercati services can be tried free of charge for 15 days, with no obligation. Fill in the form and we will get back to you as soon as possible.