Crude oil prices could top $120 per barrel of Brent crude by the end of 2026 if fighting in the Middle East continues, according to a warning issued by Helima Croft, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, as quoted by Reuters. The escalating geopolitical tensions are centered on two critical maritime chokepoints. Maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait is facing severe disruption following Houthi advances in Yemen, particularly after the Yemeni Houthis took control of the Red Sea port of Mokha.
This strategic position will enable the Iranian-backed group to launch more direct attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and oil tankers operating in the Red Sea. Simultaneously, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula continue to escalate, pushing both Brent crude and WTI above $100 per barrel. According to Reuters, Brent crude nearly reached $110 per barrel on September 11, 2026.
The current market data shows WTI trading at $99.08 per barrel and Brent at $103.8 per barrel as of the latest available quotes. The surge in oil prices has triggered broader market reactions, with bond yields rising sharply as inflation concerns intensify. JP Morgan has issued a fresh forecast projecting that eight to nine developed economies may implement interest rate hikes by the end of 2026.
These could include the United States, Japan, four European central banks including the European Central Bank, as well as Australia and New Zealand. According to JP Morgan's analysts, the tightening is currently expected to remain limited, but risks point toward more aggressive central bank action given resilient economic growth, persistent core inflation, and mounting commodity price pressures. Asian economies are also experiencing significant strain from rising oil prices.
Bloomberg reports that governments throughout the region are preparing to extend financial assistance to businesses and households as oil prices surge and diesel prices climb sharply. U.S. diesel prices have topped $6 per gallon for the first time ever, reflecting the broad market impact of Middle East supply concerns. Prospects for near-term relief appear limited based on current Middle East developments.
While President Trump stated earlier in the week that the conflict could end after the November elections, many analysts express skepticism about this timeline as fighting continues without any indication of peace negotiations from either side. Source: OilPrice.com, Reuters, Bloomberg, JP Morgan
Source: oilprice.com