Brent crude fell 8.7% to $94.60 a barrel on Wednesday as hopes for an end to the Iran war strengthened after the US midterm elections, according to a Financial Times market report cited by Exchange Rates UK. Exchange Rates UK also reports that WTI was down about 8% at $88.40. The decline brings prices closer to the forecast published by Berenberg, which expects Brent at $75 per barrel by the end of 2027 and an average of $65 in 2028.
Berenberg's forecast is conditional: it depends on a diplomatic agreement that reopens the Strait of Hormuz by early 2027. Reopening the strait is therefore a prospective outcome rather than a current development, and further fighting remains possible before any agreement is reached. Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding expects political pressure for lower fuel prices to come from within the Republican Party.
He argues that US voters hold President Donald Trump responsible for high prices and that this has cost the Republicans dearly. Looking ahead to the November 2028 presidential and congressional elections, he said: “I expect mounting pressure on Trump from other Republicans to get petrol prices back to normal by resolving the Iran issue.” Schmieding's scenario allows for a period of risk before exports become more secure. He said: “With or without a final round of bombing in the next few weeks, I thus expect Trump to strike an explicit (or implicit) deal with Iran that reopens the Strait of Hormuz by early 2027.” He also expects any compromise to involve concessions, stating: “For better or worse, a Trump deal would probably be closer to Iranian terms than the initial US and Israeli objectives.” He added that Democratic control of Congress may limit funding for a large military campaign, while the President retains military authority.
In his words: “Lame duck Trump remains commander in chief.” The underlying supply situation provides context for the forecast. The US Energy Information Administration's latest assessment of global oil inventories estimates that stocks fell by 1.9 million barrels a day during the third quarter and expects further depletion in the fourth quarter. A secure export route through Hormuz would help production recover and allow inventories to rebuild, which could reduce the scarcity that has kept oil prices elevated.
Forecasts across the industry remain divergent. Exchange Rates UK's related coverage reports that Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent forecast to $105 and its WTI forecast to $94, underscoring how much depends on the outcome of the negotiations. Sources: Financial Times market report (as cited by Exchange Rates UK, published 5 November 2026 by Dave Taylor); Berenberg, via comments by chief economist Holger Schmieding; US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook global oil assessment.
Source: exchangerates.org.uk