Chile's copper commission, Cochilco, expects national copper mine production to fall 8.4% to 4.94 million metric tons in 2026, a considerably sharper contraction than its previous forecast. In August, the agency had projected a 2.6% decline to 5.27 million tonnes. The revised estimate represents a reduction of approximately 330,000 tonnes from Cochilco's earlier projection, according to ScrapMonster, which reported the forecast on November 2, 2026.
The Cochilco forecast was announced on October 30, 2026. Cochilco attributes the weaker outlook to declining ore grades, scheduled maintenance and operational disruptions that continue to constrain output in the world's largest copper-producing country. The commission noted that these factors affect copper processing and recovery.
Production at BHP's Escondida and Spence operations, together with state-owned Codelco's mines, accounts for more than 77% of Chile's net output decline, Cochilco reported. During the first nine months of 2026, national copper production totaled 3.63 million tonnes, an 8.5% decrease from the same period in 2025. Despite the lower annual forecast, Chile must still lift its production pace in the final quarter.
Based on the figures reported, the country needs to produce approximately 1.31 million tonnes in the fourth quarter to reach the revised annual target. According to the commission, this requires average monthly output of close to 434,000 tonnes, approximately 7.6% above the January to September monthly average. ScrapMonster noted that performance at Escondida, Spence and Codelco will be central to whether the revised target is achieved.
Cochilco also reduced its 2027 production outlook. The agency expects Chilean output to recover by approximately 3% in 2027 to 5.08 million metric tons, substantially below its August projection of 5.55 million tonnes. This indicates a more gradual recovery than previously anticipated, and suggests that operational improvements will be needed to restore production levels after the expected contraction in 2026.
At the same time, Cochilco raised its average copper price forecasts for both years. The agency now expects an average price of $6.18 per pound in 2026, up from its previous forecast of $5.95 per pound. For 2027, it projects $5.95 per pound, up from an earlier estimate of $5.10 per pound.
The commission cited constrained mine supply and a refined copper market with limited capacity to absorb additional production disruptions, reflecting expectations of continued supply pressure even as Chile prepares for a partial production recovery in 2027. Source: Cochilco forecasts as reported by ScrapMonster (author Paul Ploumis), with courtesy credit to Mining Weekly.
Source: scrapmonster.com