TotalEnergies has brought forward its projection for the peak in oil demand to between 2035 and 2040, and says the energy crisis triggered by the war with Iran could accelerate the energy transition. The forecast is contained in the company’s annual energy outlook, released on Monday and reported by Oilprice.com and Reuters. The outlook projects demand for petroleum products plateauing through the 2030s before a slow decline.
Chief sustainability officer Aurélien Hamelle told reporters that demand could fall faster if electric vehicle (EV) sales continue to grow, according to Reuters. The revised outlook marks a clear shift from the company’s earlier views. In November 2025, TotalEnergies forecast that oil demand would keep rising, by nearly 5% to 108 million barrels per day by 2040 under current trends, before easing to 98 million barrels per day by 2050.
That forecast cited the partial rollback of U.S. green subsidies, new LNG approvals, new coal plants in Asia and slower EV sales. At the time, CEO Patrick Pouyanné said the chances of a Paris-aligned scenario were “diminishing, even out of reach.” A year before that forecast, the company had expected demand to peak after 2030. The 2026 report states that the energy crisis set off by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could act as an “accelerator” of the transition.
It points to a sharp rise in EV sales in Asia, Latin America and Europe, as well as to higher biofuel blending mandates. Hamelle described a “stunning acceleration” of low-carbon technologies between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects about 23 million EV sales in 2026, close to 30% of new cars worldwide, according to Oilprice.com.
In the first quarter, EV sales rose roughly 30% in Europe, 80% in Asia-Pacific outside China and 75% in Latin America. Gasoline-only cars fell below half of global new car sales for the first time in the first half of the year, at 49%. The war, which began on February 28 and choked tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, has also boosted TotalEnergies’ earnings.
The company’s third-quarter adjusted net income more than doubled to $9.1 billion, including a record $4.1 billion from its downstream division, as refining margins hit historic highs. Sources: Oilprice.com, “TotalEnergies Now Sees Oil Demand Peaking Between 2035 and 2040” (Charles Kennedy, November 2, 2026); Reuters, reporting on statements by Aurélien Hamelle; TotalEnergies annual energy outlook (2026); International Energy Agency (IEA) figures as cited by Oilprice.com.
Source: oilprice.com