LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - China's pivotal role in global base metals markets has generated a series of notable and sometimes unexpected trade developments in the first half of 2026, as the world's largest consumer and producer of most industrial metals navigated high prices, geopolitical disruptions and shifting domestic supply dynamics. Writing in Reuters Open Interest, senior metals columnist Andy Home draws on World Bureau of Metal Statistics data to map out six distinct and in some cases surprising narratives across the copper, aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel and tin markets. COPPER: BEIJING AND WASHINGTON COMPETE FOR SUPPLY China's net imports of refined copper fell by 13% year-on-year to 1.374 million metric tons in the first half of 2026, according to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, which collates official customs figures from around the world.
This was the weakest first-half reading since 2017. Imports declined by 10%, while exports — including metal drawn out of China's bonded warehouse stocks — rose by 5% to 324,000 tons. High prices dampened China's import appetite, particularly in the first quarter.
However, a new competitive dynamic has also emerged: China is now vying with the United States for available refined copper supply, owing to the premium commanded by CME prices over international benchmarks in anticipation of U.S. import tariffs. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks have fallen to a two-and-a-half-year low of 69,610 tons, and rising Yangshan premiums — a closely watched spot demand indicator — suggest import appetite is now recovering. ALUMINIUM: WAR-DRIVEN EXPORT SURGE The aluminium market is counting on rising exports from China and Indonesia to offset production losses in the Gulf region following the outbreak of the Iran war.
China has responded primarily through semi-manufactured products, as primary aluminium exports remain constrained by a 30% export tariff. After falling 9% between 2024 and 2025 following the removal of a 13% tax rebate, Chinese exports of aluminium semi-manufactured products such as plate, sheet and foil rebounded by 15% in the first half of 2026, according to WBMS data. Outbound shipment volumes have risen every month since the start of the Iran war in February.
ZINC: APPROACHING SELF-SUFFICIENCY China's net imports of refined zinc collapsed by 79% year-on-year to just 38,000 tons in the January to June period, according to WBMS data. Significant additions to domestic smelting capacity in recent years have put the country on the verge of self-sufficiency at the refined metal stage. First-half imports were the lowest since 2022, when Western smelter outages had briefly turned China into a net exporter of refined zinc for the first time in more than a decade.
Home notes this may become a less unusual occurrence going forward, as China recorded net exports for two months at the end of last year, and renewed tightness in the LME zinc contract could prompt a repeat. LEAD: RECORD IMPORT SURGE In a sharp reversal, China's refined lead imports mushroomed to 147,000 tons in the first half of 2026, up from just 17,000 tons in the same period of 2025. Inflows are already the highest annual tally since 2009.
Imports of lead concentrates increased by 5% year-on-year in the period, suggesting no shortage of raw material feed for primary smelters. Instead, a scarcity of scrap metal appears to have squeezed secondary production capacity, fuelling demand for refined imports. NICKEL: ACCELERATING INFLOWS FROM INDONESIA China's imports of refined nickel have also surprised to the upside.
Inbound shipments reached 149,000 tons in the first half of 2026, up 58% year-on-year. Net imports of 138,000 tons over the period are already higher than any full-year figure since 2021. Indonesia was the single largest supplier, accounting for almost a third of all imports.
TIN: MYANMAR MINE COMEBACK STABILISES SUPPLY China was a marginal net importer of refined tin, to the tune of 1,500 tons in the first half of 2026, extending a pattern of broadly balanced trade flows over the past couple of years. The more significant development lies in raw material supply. A prolonged closure of the Man Maw mine in Myanmar had caused China's tin concentrate imports from that country to collapse from 181,000 tons in 2023 to just 35,000 tons in 2025.
The mine is now back in operation, though still at reduced rates, and concentrate flows across the Chinese border have picked up markedly. China's imports of Myanmar concentrate tripled year-on-year to 39,500 tons, according to WBMS data. Combined with a doubling of imports from Bolivia and steady supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo, overall tin concentrate imports have stabilised after two years of contraction.
Source: Reuters / Andy Home, Reuters Open Interest column, July 29, 2026. Data sourced from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS).
Source: reuters.com