Copper opened October in positive territory, supported by the return of Chinese manufacturing activity to expansion levels and a further decline in inventories at Shanghai warehouses. In the background remains a structural problem that has weighed on the red metal for over a year: the slow restart and repeatedly delayed reopening of the Indonesian Grasberg mine, one of the world's largest copper deposits, following a fatal landslide in September 2025. Copper futures at the London Metal Exchange (LME) touched 14,453 dollars per metric ton on October 1, 2026, up 0.1% on the session and near the gain of approximately 8% recorded in the third quarter.
The historic high of 14,875 dollars was reached on September 10. Prices were mainly supported by China's official manufacturing PMI index, compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August. This marks the second consecutive monthly increase and a return above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in industrial activity.
NBS chief statistician Huo Lihui described the manufacturing business climate as "further improved in September," as reported by Xinhua. According to Reuters, copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined 17.8% to 38,744 metric tons, the lowest level since January 2024. Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, commented: "Although uncertainty about global growth and trade policy remain a factor to consider, structural demand trends and contained supply growth should continue to support prices in the fourth quarter." Behind the resilience of prices lies a deeper supply problem.
In September 2025, a landslide struck the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, one of the world's largest copper and gold deposits, controlled by American company Freeport-McMoRan. Seven workers lost their lives. Production, initially nearly halted, stabilized in 2026 at between 40% and 50% of normal capacity, but the restart schedule has undergone several delays.
According to the company's latest update, Grasberg should reach 65% capacity in the second half of 2026 and 80% by mid-2027, with a return close to full capacity by end of 2027 and complete recovery deferred to early 2028. Tony Wenas, CEO of Freeport Indonesia, stated: "The company aims to return to full capacity in early 2028." Copper is considered a leading indicator of global industrial demand as it is used in electrical cables, power grids, electric vehicles and data centers. Structurally high prices mean higher costs for electrical and electronic component producers and for energy transition infrastructure.
For investors with direct or indirect exposure to the mining and industrial sector through equities or commodities ETFs, the combination of improving Chinese demand and supply constrained by Grasberg represents a supporting factor for prices in the short to medium term. However, copper remains historically more volatile than the structural shortage narrative suggests.
Source: en.money.it