A Ministerial Order issued by the Democratic Republic of Congo banning the export of copper and cobalt concentrates is unlikely to have material impact on global copper or cobalt markets, though it could introduce a near-term risk premium to copper prices while policy details are clarified, according to BMI, a Fitch Solutions company. On August 6, the DRC announced the ban through a joint Ministerial order dated June 29 and signed by Mines Minister Louis Kabamba Watum, Foreign Trade Minister Julien Paluku Kahongya and Economy Minister Daniel Mukoko Samba. The order prohibits copper and cobalt concentrate exports effective immediately, though one-year waivers may be granted under strategic circumstances.
The policy also introduces a new tax regime for economically significant mining by-products with a three-month transition period. BMI notes that the DRC has operated a de facto ban on unbeneficiated copper and cobalt concentrate exports since the mid-2010s, with ad hoc exemptions granted to select mining companies. The new policy represents a shift to a de jure ban with stricter rules around waivers and exemptions.
For copper, approximately 13 percent of the DRC's copper exports last year were contained in concentrates, equating to about 400,000 tonnes of copper metal or approximately 1.7 percent of global copper mine production. While this could potentially push the copper market balance into deficit, BMI predicts the DRC should have spare capacity to smelt additional concentrates domestically following the recent commissioning of the Kamoa-Kakula smelter, which has a nameplate capacity of 500,000 tonnes per year. Currently, the Kamoa-Kakula mine is producing feedstock well below the smelter's capacity due to residual impacts from a seismic incident last year that flooded much of the underground mine.
BMI suggests that Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining, the mine's owners, could potentially allow neighbouring copper mines to process concentrates at the Kamoa-Kakula smelter if those miners cannot negotiate waivers with Kinshasa, provided spare capacity and technical and commercial viability exist. Ivanhoe also smelts a portion of its concentrate output at the nearby Lualaba copper smelter, which is 60 percent owned by China's CNMC. For this reason, BMI states it is not revising down its DRC copper mine production forecasts for 2026 or 2027, which it has already adjusted following the Kamoa-Kakula disruption.
Regarding cobalt, BMI considers the ban even less impactful than for copper. According to Congolese trade data, almost all cobalt leaving the DRC exits as cobalt hydroxide, an intermediate product between concentrate and battery-grade cobalt. The more significant constraint remains the quota system introduced after a temporary cobalt export ban last year.
The DRC has set cobalt export quotas at 96,000 tonnes for 2026, including a 10 percent strategic allocation, equivalent to less than half the DRC's cobalt exports in 2024. BMI predicts the concentrate ban should have limited incremental impact on the cobalt market unless authorities extend restrictions to cobalt hydroxide. BMI identifies a secondary fiscal risk rather than a physical one.
The new order reportedly introduces a tax regime for economically significant mining by-products that could affect profit margins at select mining operations. This measure could potentially target beneficiaries of recent squeezes on sulphuric acid supplies, which some DRC copper smelters produce as a by-product. The policy shift has injected fresh bullish momentum into an already buoyant market.
LME copper prices touched $14,369.50 per tonne on August 6 following news reports, the highest level since January 29 when copper registered an all-time high of $14,528 per tonne. On COMEX, prices climbed to a fresh record high of $14,781 per tonne on August 5, lifting year-to-date gains to 18.2 percent. With copper edging closer to historical peaks and bullish sentiment accumulating across multiple fronts, BMI predicts the near-term trajectory appears skewed firmly to the upside.
Copper prices have averaged $13,228 per tonne year-to-date as of August 6. BMI notes that upside risks to its current price forecast are building, with copper potentially averaging closer to $13,500 per tonne this year. Copper is being buoyed by positive sentiment towards the global economy as hopes of a US-Iran deal are renewed, intense stocking up on COMEX as US tariff risks mount, a slightly weaker US dollar in recent days, and the DRC's announcement despite its minimal material impact on physical trade.
For cobalt, BMI maintains its price forecast at $25 per pound this year and $22.50 per pound in 2027. The company continues to expect the DRC to lift slightly its cap on cobalt exports to approximately 120,000 tonnes in 2027. BMI notes that the quota system has not worked as intended.
After rising sharply following export restrictions last year, cobalt prices have mostly traded sideways in 2026 as battery makers reduce reliance on cobalt-rich battery chemistries while new cobalt supply sources come online at mixed hydroxide precipitate operations in Indonesia. Additionally, BMI is unaware of major mining or processing companies announcing construction of new battery-grade cobalt refineries in the DRC since export restrictions were implemented. Broader implications point to resource nationalism remaining a significant factor across the African continent.
BMI warns that other countries are likely to follow similar trajectories as commodity prices continue climbing, fuelled by energy transition demand, artificial intelligence optimism and over a decade of underinvestment in new supply. The company predicts resource nationalism is likely to grow in both scale and scope in the coming years.
Source: miningweekly.com