Gold has long attracted investors seeking protection against geopolitical uncertainty, but according to Barchart columnist Don Dawson, gold futures have continued to decline despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the U.S.-Iran conflict, and expanding Middle East hostilities involving Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Dawson asks what would be needed to spark a rally if multiple wars cannot sustain one, noting that markets do not always respond to world events as conventional wisdom suggests. According to Barchart's technical analysis, gold futures have produced a series of lower highs and lower lows since reaching their all-time high earlier this year.
On the weekly chart, prices are trading below a declining 20-week simple moving average (SMA), and the 20-week SMA has crossed below the 50-week SMA. The daily chart shows a similar pattern, with prices below both the 20-day and 50-day SMAs. Dawson argues that trying to catch a bottom because geopolitical tensions remain elevated can be costly, and suggests that traders may be better served waiting for price action to confirm a reversal through improved market structure and a sustained recovery above key moving averages.
The Related Symbols table on the Barchart page listed the December 2026 gold contract (GCZ26) at 4,177.3, down 13.3 points, or 0.32%. The source does not specify the timestamp of this quotation. Dawson also points to energy markets as a possible future catalyst for gold.
Citing the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), he reports that average U.S. retail diesel prices fell from about $6.53 per gallon on September 21 to $6.20 on October 5, a decline of 5.1% in two weeks. These are retail averages, not futures prices.
Dawson also reports that on October 9 President Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to release additional Russian diesel supplies into global markets, and that the U.S. Treasury Department temporarily eased sanctions to facilitate those shipments. Dawson notes that analysts question whether the additional supply will significantly lower prices.
He adds that the end of the fall harvest may reduce seasonal diesel demand, which could help moderate inflationary pressures. Dawson links these developments to monetary policy and the U.S. dollar. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was scheduled for October 14, and traders are watching for signs of persistent inflation.
If inflation eases, the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to lower interest rates. Dawson argues that lower-rate expectations could weaken the U.S. dollar, which he says has recently pressured precious metals and grain prices, and that a weaker dollar could eventually support gold. He characterizes these relationships as potential outcomes rather than forecasts.
Dawson concludes that geopolitical uncertainty, declining energy prices, and shifting interest-rate expectations could eventually give gold bulls reasons for optimism, but that a compelling fundamental argument does not guarantee a trend reversal. For now, he writes, the weekly and daily charts continue to favor the bears, and traders may be better served by respecting the prevailing trend until price action shows otherwise. Source: Barchart.com, "Gold: If Wars Can't Spark a Rally, What Will?" by Don Dawson.
Diesel price data attributed by the author to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Chart data attributed by the source to Barchart.
Source: barchart.com