Lead prices came under renewed pressure on July 24, 2026, as weakening downstream procurement demand and mounting concerns over potential inventory accumulation weighed on market sentiment, according to the SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary published by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). On the futures front, LME lead opened overnight at $1,892 per metric ton, briefly surging to a session high of $1,910 per metric ton during Asian trading hours. However, increased bearish positioning erased all gains in late trading, pushing the contract to a low of $1,886 per metric ton before it settled at $1,887 per metric ton, down 0.32% on the day.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened higher at 15,910 yuan per metric ton before long liquidation dragged it to a session low of 15,755 yuan per metric ton. The contract ultimately settled at 15,765 yuan per metric ton, a decline of 0.88%. On the macroeconomic front, several key developments shaped market sentiment.
The United States imposed tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 economies as a replacement for expiring global import tariffs. The US Treasury expressed concern over excessive yen volatility despite persistent yen weakness amid narrowing US-Japan interest rate differentials. The European Central Bank held rates unchanged as widely expected but left the door open for a potential rate hike in September.
In China, the People's Bank of China announced a 500 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility operation with a one-year tenor on July 24. The Ministry of Commerce noted that China and the United States are soliciting opinions on tariff reduction arrangements and intend to push for implementation as soon as possible. In the spot market, a rebound in SHFE lead prices bolstered suppliers' willingness to sell, though physical market activity remained subdued.
Supply in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions was limited. Primary lead smelters maintained ample ex-warehouse stocks and were offering materials predominantly at discounts, with quotations from mainstream production areas ranging at discounts of 50 to 30 yuan per metric ton against the SMM No. 1 lead average price on an ex-warehouse basis.
In the secondary lead sector, most smelters were operating at reduced capacity or had suspended production entirely, constraining available circulating supply. Some secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0 to 50 yuan per metric ton against SMM No. 1 lead, creating an inverted price structure relative to primary lead.
Downstream enterprises continued to favor primary lead and adopted a just-in-time procurement approach. Warrant cargo transactions were moderate, while ex-warehouse cargo transactions showed relative improvement. On the inventory side, LME lead stockpiles remained unchanged from the prior session at 449,325 metric tons as of July 23, according to SMM data.
SMM's tracked social inventory of lead ingots across five locations totaled 62,400 metric tons as of July 23, representing a decline of 9,400 metric tons from July 16 and a decrease of 1,400 metric tons from July 20. Looking ahead, SMM's price outlook for the near term is cautious. As late July approaches, the July long-term lead ingot contract is nearing expiration, prompting medium- to large-sized downstream enterprises to hold back purchases while awaiting new monthly contract terms.
Additionally, some downstream operations plan temporary shutdowns due to high temperatures, further depressing near-term procurement demand. On the supply side, primary lead producers in central China are expected to enter maintenance periods next week, while new secondary lead capacity in east China is set to ramp up, creating mixed signals for supply dynamics. SMM warned that if lead consumption remains sluggish, the ongoing drawdown in social inventory may prove unsustainable.
The possibility of renewed inventory accumulation cannot be ruled out, which could act as a drag on lead price trends in the coming sessions. All market data and analysis in this report are sourced from Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), based on publicly available information, market communications, and SMM's internal database models.
Source: news.metal.com