Lead prices climbed marginally on October 13, 2026, with LME spot prices reaching US$1,893/t from US$1,888/t the previous day, as global economic uncertainties weighed on base metals markets despite underlying supply-demand dynamics. The International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, released with data through October 1, 2026, projects global growth to decelerate to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.5% in 2025, before a modest recovery to 3.4% in 2027. The growth revision of plus 0.1 percentage points for 2026 reflects nations' adaptation to energy supply disruptions from Middle East tensions, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the IMF notes that "buffers" helping absorb these energy shocks are increasingly strained. Global inflation is forecasted at 4.7% for 2026 and 4.1% for 2027, creating headwinds for the broader metals complex. Lead, as a key component in battery production and industrial applications, remains sensitive to these macroeconomic crosscurrents.
The broader base metals sector showed mixed performance, with copper holding around US$14,641/t amid an artificial intelligence selloff that offset supply concerns in Chile, while zinc declined to US$3,742/t and tin fell to US$53,045/t. China's new energy vehicle market continued its expansion, with NEV sales rising 13.6% year-over-year to 1.823 million units in September, accounting for 61.6% of all new vehicle sales. This sustained demand from the world's largest EV market underpins long-term lead battery consumption, though domestic vehicle sales overall declined 8.4% year-over-year, reflecting weak domestic demand pressures.
Sulphur supply disruptions, stemming from Strait of Hormuz complications, have elevated mining costs across the sector. Sulphur prices have surged to approximately 10 times pre-war levels, reaching close to US$1,000/t compared to historical levels of US$100-200/t. This supply constraint affects copper producers and fertiliser manufacturers alike, with miners able to pay premium prices that squeeze lower-margin fertiliser producers.
Antofagasta reported first-half 2026 earnings nearly one-third higher despite elevated acid and diesel costs, demonstrating the mining sector's ability to absorb cost pressures. The US dollar index strengthened to 102.35 from 102.22 previously, standing near 18-month highs on safe-haven demand. This currency appreciation weighs on dollar-priced commodities like lead, limiting upside price momentum despite underlying demand considerations.
Precious metals showed relative resilience, with gold holding at US$4,192/oz despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's main airport, with Riyadh airport closure ordered until October 17, lifted crude oil toward US$105.4/bbl and Brent toward US$106/bbl, sustaining inflation pressure that constrains gold's upside despite its traditional safe-haven properties. Lithium carbonate prices on the Guangzhou exchange experienced a sharp correction, closing 11.8% lower at ¥104,740/t on October 13, marking the steepest daily fall since March and the weakest level since December 17, 2025.
The decline followed a China-EU agreement potentially halving Chinese hybrid car exports to Europe, signaling demand moderation in the broader EV supply chain. Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2026, LME commodity prices, Share Talk SP Angel Daily Market View October 13, 2026.
Source: share-talk.com