The global Defence Critical Minerals Market was valued at USD 4,569.3 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 12,912.4 million by 2036, according to a comprehensive market analysis published by Meticulous Research in October 2026. The market is projected to grow from an estimated USD 7,547.4 million in 2026 at a compound annual growth rate of 5.5% through the forecast period 2026-2036, with growth driven primarily by prices in 2025-2026 and by defence production volumes thereafter. In terms of volume, global defence demand for tungsten, the largest mineral by market value, is projected to reach 34,268 tonnes by 2036, up from an estimated 17,865 tonnes in 2026, representing a CAGR of 6.7%.
Rare earth elements are growing fastest by volume at 9.7% per year, driven by magnets for drones, robotics, missiles, and electrified systems. China's dominance in critical mineral processing has created significant supply-side pressures for Western defence systems. China controls approximately 79% of tungsten mine output, more than 90% of rare earth refining for magnets, about 94% of gallium refining, and approximately 80% of refined antimony.
Between 2023 and 2025, China introduced export licensing or bans on gallium, germanium, graphite, antimony, tungsten, and 12 of the 17 rare earth elements. These export controls have created a two-tier pricing structure. Ammonium paratungstate prices outside China surged from a five-year average of approximately USD 300 per metric tonne unit to more than USD 3,000 per metric tonne unit by April 2026.
Antimony peaked at approximately USD 59,750 per tonne in July 2025. These price movements significantly influence overall market valuations, with tungsten alone accounting for approximately 50.3% of the market value in 2026. By mineral segment, tungsten represents the largest share at 50.3% of the market in 2026, while lithium is projected to register the highest CAGR of 12.0% through 2036.
Lithium volume is expected to rise from an estimated 7,056 tonnes in 2026 to 16,576 tonnes in 2036. This rapid growth is driven by thermal batteries for missiles and munitions and lithium-ion batteries for drones, unmanned underwater vehicles, soldier systems, and electrified vehicles. Rising global defence spending is the primary driver of the market.
World military expenditure reached USD 2,887 billion in 2025, marking the 11th consecutive annual increase according to SIPRI data. NATO members agreed in June 2025 to raise defence and security spending to 5% of GDP by 2030, with European defence spending rising 14% to USD 864 billion in 2025. Chinese military spending increased 7.4% to USD 336 billion.
Munitions production has emerged as a critical demand driver. The war in Ukraine exposed low production capacity for artillery ammunition in the U.S. and Europe, prompting significant funding for expansions of shell, propellant, and explosive production since 2023. NATO members are actively rebuilding stocks of missiles and interceptors.
Government intervention in supply chains has intensified significantly. The U.S. Department of Defense has implemented sourcing rules prohibiting, from 1 January 2027, the use of rare earth magnets, tungsten, and tantalum that are mined, refined, separated, or melted in China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea in defence systems.
This rule extends restrictions from finished products to the entire supply chain, requiring contractors to qualify new suppliers and establish traceability from mine to component. U.S. government initiatives include a July 2025 partnership with MP Materials, under which the U.S. Department of War purchased USD 400 million of preferred stock and guaranteed a price of USD 110 per kilogram for NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium) for ten years.
The Defense Logistics Agency awarded United States Antimony a contract valued at up to USD 245 million. The U.S. launched Project Vault, a USD 12 billion strategic minerals stockpile initiative, in 2026. Geographically, North America is expected to account for the largest market share at 44.6% in 2026, driven primarily by U.S. defence spending of USD 954 billion in 2025, approximately one-third of global military expenditure.
Europe accounts for 27.3% of the market in 2026, while Asia-Pacific represents 24.2%. The Middle East and Africa account for 3.2% of the market. Latin America, despite representing a small base, is projected to register the highest regional CAGR of 6.7% during the forecast period.
Within Europe, Poland is identified as the fastest-growing market in the region at a CAGR of 11.0%, supported by large purchases of tanks, artillery, and armoured vehicles and domestic ammunition production. Saudi Arabia is identified as the fastest-growing country market globally at a CAGR of 11.2%, supported by its goal of localizing 50% of military spending by 2030. By application, the Armor and Penetrators segment is expected to account for the largest share at 34.9% of the market in 2026, reflecting tungsten heavy alloy penetrators for tank and naval ammunition.
However, the Batteries and Power Storage segment is projected to register the highest CAGR of 9.2% during the forecast period, driven by lithium batteries for unmanned systems. The Missiles and Munitions platform segment accounts for the largest share at 42.6% of the market, reflecting tungsten and antimony in ammunition and rare earth magnets in guided weapons. The Space, C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance), and Electronic Warfare segment is projected to register the highest CAGR of 8.0% during the forecast period, driven by radar, electronic warfare, satellites, and sensors utilizing gallium, germanium, beryllium, and rare earths.
Tier suppliers and component manufacturers represent the largest end-user segment at 61.9% of the market in 2026, reflecting purchases by melters, forging houses, magnet makers, powder metallurgy companies, and electronics suppliers. Government stockpiling agencies account for 12.3% of the market in 2026 after their purchases more than doubled between 2024 and 2026. The competitive landscape is highly fragmented across minerals and supply chain stages.
Key suppliers include MP Materials Corp., Lynas Rare Earths Ltd., Neo Performance Materials Inc., China Northern Rare Earth, Plansee Group, Xiamen Tungsten, Almonty Industries Inc., ATI Inc., Carpenter Technology Corporation, VSMPO-AVISMA Corporation, Toho Titanium Co., Ltd., IperionX Limited, Materion Corporation, Umicore SA, 5N Plus Inc., United States Antimony Corporation, Perpetua Resources Corp., Global Advanced Metals, CBMM, and Glencore plc. Market leadership varies by mineral. In 2025, Materion led beryllium with an estimated share of 67.5%, while Plansee led tungsten with 22.1%.
China Northern Rare Earth led rare earths, and Glencore led cobalt. Between January 2024 and September 2026, key players announced 21 strategic developments with verifiable dates, led by agreements and partnerships followed by expansions and funding approvals. The report identifies three structural shifts expected to shape the market through 2036.
First, growth is shifting from prices to volumes as prices ease from their 2026 peaks while munitions, missile, and aircraft production expands. Second, non-Chinese supply chains for tungsten, rare earths, antimony, and titanium are being built with government support, although long qualification timelines slow the transition. Third, drones, robotics, and electrified systems are making rare earths and lithium the fastest-growing minerals in the defence portfolio.
Principal risks identified include tungsten price volatility, the potential renewal of Chinese export controls after November 2026, the pace of munitions production, and extended qualification timelines for new suppliers. The report also notes limited processing capacity outside China, price volatility and contracting risk, and the small and fragmented nature of defence demand as growth restraints. Source: Meticulous Research, Defence Critical Minerals Market (2026-2036), Report ID MR-2291, published October 2026.
Source: meticulousresearch.com