Oil prices fell on the morning of Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as investors weighed the implications of the Democratic takeover of both chambers of the U.S. Congress and renewed diplomatic efforts involving Iran, according to EnergyNow's Morning Oil Price Report. According to the report, WTI crude was approximately US$94.91 per barrel, down US$1.18, or 1.23%, from Tuesday's official settlement of US$96.09.
Brent crude was approximately US$101.85 per barrel, down US$1.75, or 1.69%, from Tuesday's settlement of US$103.60. The international benchmark extended its decline after closing at a nearly four-week low on Tuesday. The indicative Brent-WTI premium was approximately US$6.94 per barrel.
The prices are based on Reuters' November 4 market report, timestamped 10:34 GMT, which the report describes as the latest independently verified quotations available during preparation. December 2026 WTI remains the front-month U.S. benchmark, while January 2027 Brent is the international benchmark following the October 30 expiration of December Brent. The report also notes that profit-taking following October's rally is pressuring crude prices.
Political uncertainty is a central factor in the market move. Democrats have captured control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate following the November 3 midterm elections, a development that could complicate President Donald Trump's domestic legislative agenda. The outcome could also influence Washington's approach toward Iran.
Analysts cautioned, however, that congressional opposition may not necessarily reduce the likelihood of further American military action. President Trump has indicated that the United States has no immediate plans for additional strikes against Iran, despite recent American attacks on military targets on Qeshm Island. Qatari mediators are continuing efforts to negotiate an agreement, although Iranian officials maintain that significant differences remain between Tehran and Washington.
Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova, said conflicting American signals have made it difficult for traders to establish a clear market direction. Supply conditions are also weighing on prices. According to Vortexa shipping data cited by Reuters, Middle Eastern crude, condensate and refined-product flows averaged approximately 17.1 million barrels per day in October, down from 18.9 million barrels in September.
Shipments remain substantially below prewar levels, but improving crude availability is beginning to reduce pressure on physical petroleum markets. Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen noted that recovering crude shipments could eventually help normalize refining margins, although refined-product exports remain constrained. U.S. inventories are providing some support.
Preliminary American Petroleum Institute figures indicate that U.S. crude inventories declined approximately 5.27 million barrels during the week ending October 30, against analyst expectations of an increase of approximately 880,000 barrels. The unexpected draw suggests tighter near-term U.S. crude supplies. Official government inventory data is scheduled for release on Wednesday morning.
The key risks to the outlook include the course of U.S.-Iran negotiations, where diplomatic progress could reduce crude prices while renewed military escalation could reverse the decline, and continued shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on November 29, a meeting the report describes as important for determining its 2027 production strategy. Potential progress toward a settlement in Ukraine could also increase expectations of additional Russian crude reaching international markets.
For Canadian producers, weaker WTI prices combined with an unusually wide Western Canadian Select discount are adding pressure on realized heavy-oil revenues. Sources: EnergyNow.com, Morning Oil Price Report, November 4, 2026; Reuters market report, November 4, 2026; Vortexa shipping data as cited by Reuters; American Petroleum Institute preliminary inventory figures; Saxo Bank (Ole Hansen); Phillip Nova (Priyanka Sachdeva).
Source: energynow.com