The most-traded Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) tin contract, SN2612, closed the November 3 night session at 351,760 yuan per tonne, down 2.95% from the previous settlement of 362,450 yuan per tonne, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). The official LME three-month tin price closed at $47,435 per tonne, down $2,224 or 4.48% from the previous official close of $49,659. SMM noted that SHFE and LME fell together, with the SHFE decline smaller than the LME decline.
The SHFE contract opened at 355,840 yuan, rose to an intraday high of 358,420 yuan, then shifted lower to a low of 350,660 yuan before a slight late-session rebound. Volume was 125,135 lots and open interest rose by 1,283 lots to 48,342 lots, a pattern SMM described as a lower consolidation after position building. In the spot market, SMM's 1# tin average price on November 3 was 365,950 yuan per tonne, down 5,450 yuan from the previous trading day.
SMM reported that the spot decline was smaller than the futures decline, with suppliers still holding prices firm. Downstream buying, however, was mainly limited to small rigid-demand orders, and transaction volumes did not pick up. Inventory levels remain low across all three measures tracked by SMM.
LME tin stocks stood at 3,970 tonnes, down 60 tonnes from the previous day, including 3,560 tonnes of registered warrants and 410 tonnes of cancelled warrants. SHFE tin futures warrants totaled 1,990 tonnes as of November 3, down 20 tonnes. SMM's domestic tin ingot social inventory was 6,342 tonnes for the week ending October 30, after a destocking of 347 tonnes in a single week.
SMM said destocking is continuing but at a narrowing pace. Macro conditions were a headwind for nonferrous metals. According to SMM, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 5.8 basis points to 4.951% on November 3, and the US dollar index gained 0.15% to 101.867.
The US October ISM manufacturing index came in at 55.5, up 1.0 points month on month. CME FedWatch showed a 74.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. Among equities, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.64% and the Nasdaq gained 0.83%, while the Dow fell 0.38%.
NYMEX December WTI settled at $96.09 per barrel and ICE January Brent at $103.6 per barrel. On the supply side, SMM reported that the operating rate at smelters in two Chinese provinces was 26.92%, down 0.19 percentage points week on week and still at a historical low. This is mainly due to the shutdown of a leading Yunnan smelter for maintenance since September 30, with the plan not exceeding 45 days.
Domestic refined tin output in September was 16,070 tonnes, up 180 tonnes month on month. Tin concentrate imports in September reached 21,602.7 tonnes in physical content, up 95.57% year on year, and cumulative January to September imports were 54,200 tonnes in tin content, up 29.04% year on year. As of October 16, Yunnan 40% tin concentrate treatment charges were 18,000 yuan per tonne and 60% concentrate charges were 14,000 yuan per tonne, which SMM said confirms tight ore supply.
Indonesia's September tin ingot exports were 3,970 tonnes, down about 17.4% month on month. Production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State remain at 40% to 50%, with full resumption pushed back to 2027. Among medium-term projects, SMM said Kazakhstan's Syrymbet mine is planned to produce 6,000 tonnes per year with commissioning in the second half of 2029, and Australia's Tallebung project is planned to produce 2,040 tonnes per year with commissioning in mid-2028.
On the demand side, SMM cited a September operating rate of 79.10% at solder enterprises, up 6.3 percentage points month on month, as the latest available quantitative indicator. Counterpoint Research data showed global smartphone shipments fell 19% year on year in Q3 2026, while revenue rose 3% to $114 billion and average selling price rose 27% to $442. SMM said downstream sentiment in the electronics chain improved at the margin on November 3 but has not yet translated into physical orders.
The next key downstream event is Nvidia's FY2027 Q3 results, scheduled after the US market close on November 17 Eastern Time. SMM's assessment is that tin prices are likely to continue consolidating at lows in the short term. Supply constraints from Wa State and the Yunnan maintenance provide bottom support, but expected replenishment once smelting resumes limits the upside.
Demand is described as mediocre and weakening at the margin, as the September to October peak season ends and November enters an off-season transition. SMM said the key variables to watch are the actual pace of Wa State production resumptions and the timing of downstream restocking. SMM noted that its data are for reference only and do not constitute investment recommendations.
Sources: Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), 'SMM Tin Morning Brief', November 4, 2026, news.metal.com; Counterpoint Research Market Monitor (Q3 2026 smartphone data), as cited by SMM.
Source: news.metal.com