Oil prices climbed to their highest levels in nearly two weeks on Monday morning as fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia and oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz placed Middle East supply risks at the center of market attention. The renewed geopolitical tensions outweighed announcements regarding additional Russian diesel supplies and a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $93.78 per barrel, up $1.93, or 2.10%, while Brent crude rose $2.09, or 2.00%, to $106.80 per barrel, according to Oilprice.com data on October 12, 2026.
The price movement followed a weekend of significant Middle East developments. A Houthi strike targeted Riyadh's international airport on Saturday, resulting in 13 deaths and more than 300 wounded. Additional attacks were reported Sunday, while two oil tankers were struck near Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz.
These tanker attacks pose a threat to the recovery in Gulf oil exports, which had reached 81% of prewar levels in September according to recent data. Crude and condensate shipments had recovered to 91% of prewar rates, but refined-product exports remained at just 60%. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 per barrel from $85, with the firm estimating that geopolitical risks are currently adding just over $20 per barrel to oil prices.
The price increase emerged as OPEC significantly reduced its expectations for global oil demand growth. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais announced Monday that the producer group now expects demand to grow by just 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, down substantially from the 1.4 million bpd forecast at the beginning of the year. OPEC expects much of the demand deferred during this year's disruptions to return in 2027.
In contrast, the International Energy Agency forecasts an even deeper demand impact, expecting a 2.5-million-bpd decline in global consumption in 2026 followed by a 2.6-million-bpd rebound in 2027. On the supply front, President Trump announced that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons, approximately 2.25 million barrels, of diesel to U.S. and global markets, with additional supplies to follow. Moscow also partially lifted restrictions on diesel exports, allowing another 500,000 tons, or about 3.7 million barrels, onto the international market.
Trump also announced Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of violating the agreement on Monday. In the Gulf of Mexico, major operators including Shell, Chevron, and BP were preparing to restore offshore production following Hurricane Isaias disruptions over the weekend.
Source: Oilprice.com, October 12, 2026
Source: oilprice.com