Turmeric futures settled higher on September 25, 2026, gaining 1.11% to close at Rs 20,584, as market participants assessed ongoing supply constraints and weather-related production concerns affecting the upcoming harvest season. The price appreciation was primarily supported by hand-to-mouth supply conditions across major growing regions and growing fears that deficient rainfall and potential El Nino conditions could negatively impact the crop currently being sown. Industry observers noted that lower-than-expected expansion in sowing across key turmeric-producing areas has heightened concerns regarding upcoming production levels.
According to available data, carryforward stocks have declined significantly over the past three to four years, with industry estimates placing current stocks at approximately 15 lakh bags, down substantially from more than 20 lakh bags reported in the previous season. This reduction has notably diminished the availability buffer in the market. However, the price rally faced headwinds from recent improvements in monsoon activity.
Enhanced rainfall across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka has eased immediate weather concerns and improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, ensuring better water availability for the crop's vegetative phase. Re-sowing operations in North Karnataka have been completed following rainfall, with crop conditions showing improvement. These developments created a softer market undertone as traders assessed the potential for better production outcomes.
Additional downward pressure emerged from farmer selling during the peak harvest window. Tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have also resulted in rejection of non-Integrated Pest Management (IPM) compliant lots and pricing discounts for commercial-grade turmeric. Conversely, growing demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers continues to provide support for compliant stock holdings.
India's turmeric export performance showed mixed signals. Exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026, compared with 15,071 tonnes in the same month of the previous year. However, cumulative April-July exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes in the prior year.
Notable export growth was observed to Turkey, which surged 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka, which rose 644% to 156 tonnes, and Nigeria, which increased 983% to 69 tonnes. Spot market prices in Nizamabad, one of the major turmeric trading centers, concluded at Rs 20,222.7, down 0.25%. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh buying pressure, with open interest rising 0.41% to 36,920 contracts while prices gained Rs 226.
Support for turmeric futures is identified near Rs 20,402, and a breach below this level could expose the support level at Rs 20,218. On the upside, resistance is positioned near Rs 20,718, with a sustained move above this level potentially leading to a test of Rs 20,850. Source: Kedia Advisory, Investment Guru India, September 25, 2026
Source: investmentguruindia.com