European aluminium premiums are experiencing significant upward pressure as supply constraints override typical market dynamics, according to analysis from CRU. LME aluminium prices were trading at $3,275/t as of 22 September 2026, maintaining support above a key upward trend line established since early July despite headwinds from a strengthening US dollar and tighter Federal Reserve policy. The Rotterdam duty-paid premium reached $533/t on 23 September, up $10/t within a single week.
This escalation is driven by multiple supply-side pressures rather than incremental demand growth. Low physical stocks, restricted prompt availability, vessel delays, and rising logistics costs are all contributing to higher delivered prices in Europe. Vessel disruptions are expected to maintain tightness in certain inventory categories potentially through November, further supporting upward price momentum.
A notable divergence is emerging between duty-paid and duty-unpaid Rotterdam premiums. Duty-paid premiums are being supported by acute physical tightness, while duty-unpaid premiums remain relatively rangebound. The spread between duty-paid and duty-unpaid premiums stood at $79/t as of 23 September, which CRU notes is not yet sufficiently wide to fully cover import duty and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs.
Should this spread widen further, it could incentivise clearing of duty-unpaid metal and potentially moderate the duty-paid market. Global supply constraints continue to buttress the aluminium price outlook. Middle Eastern supply disruptions, including limited Gulf smelter restarts and ongoing Strait of Hormuz risks, are constraining global supply.
Chinese production is approaching its national capacity cap, limiting prospects for a significant supply surge from that region. Market participants maintain cautious positioning with lean trading books and limited prompt duty-paid metal availability, conditions that keep upside risks firmly in play. Looking at the fourth quarter, CRU maintains a supportive outlook for aluminium premiums and broader prices.
However, the anticipation of new supply entering the market in 2027 is tempering market enthusiasm. Market participants are reportedly unlikely to add significant length to their books given the expected supply influx in the coming year. Source: CRU Group, 25 September 2026
Source: crugroup.com