Since March 2026, Ukraine has systematically dismantled Russia's refining infrastructure through a sustained campaign of drone strikes, driving crude processing to its lowest level in more than two decades and forcing Moscow to ban exports of gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel — with consequences now rippling across global energy markets. Russian refineries processed an average of 3.91 million barrels of crude per day in early July, according to Energy Aspects data cited by Bloomberg. That figure represents a decline of more than 1.4 million barrels per day compared to the previous year's average and marks the lowest national processing rate since March 2005.
Ukraine has struck at least 24 of Russia's 34 large refineries in roughly 50 attacks over the past 100 days, according to OilPrice.com. The July 6 strike on the Omsk refinery proved particularly significant, removing what had been the last major refining facility beyond Ukrainian drone range. Located more than 2,000 kilometers from the front, Omsk processed approximately 22 million tonnes of crude in 2024, making it Russia's largest refinery.
The attack reportedly damaged ELOU-AVT-11, a primary distillation unit capable of processing 8.4 million tonnes of crude and 1.2 million tonnes of gas condensate per year, as well as a second large primary unit, AVT-10. The scale of the campaign is extensive. Saratov halted operations after a March strike.
Kirishi, one of the largest refineries in European Russia, lost significant capacity following attacks in March and May. Norsi in Kstovo suffered repeated strikes, including reported damage to a primary processing unit. The Moscow refinery was hit several times in June and may remain offline through the end of the year.
Syzran, Novokuybyshevsk, Volgograd, Ryazan, Taneco, Ilsky, Afipsky and plants in the Bashneft group have all been attacked. On the night of July 14, Ukrainian drones struck the Afipsky refinery in the Krasnodar region and targeted Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat in Bashkortostan, one of Russia's largest integrated refining and petrochemical complexes. The impact on fuel supply is quantifiable through exchange trading data.
Russia stopped publishing much of its refinery operational information as the attacks intensified, but fuel trading on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX) provides a clearer picture of the missing supply. Average daily gasoline and diesel sales held between roughly 118,000 and 150,000 tonnes from January through March, according to Meduza, which analyzed 65,700 transactions.
Sales fell to 104,000 tonnes per day in April, 106,000 tonnes in May, and 80,300 tonnes in June. June volumes were 38% below the same month in 2025, while weighted average prices were 37% higher. Refinery-level losses have been severe.
Exchange sales from the Moscow refinery's delivery points averaged approximately 4,400 tonnes per day before the June 16-18 attacks and fell to roughly 400 tonnes afterward. Kirishi refinery sales dropped approximately 80% following its May strike. The Samara refinery group lost about 65% of exchange volumes, Norsi lost 63%, and Taneco lost 56%.
Russian gasoline production fell to approximately 90,000 tonnes per day in June against summer demand of at least 110,000 tonnes, according to Reuters. Other estimates put current production at only 65% of seasonal demand. Diesel, which had previously provided a meaningful export cushion, has also been affected.
Russia produced 81.6 million tonnes of diesel in 2024 against domestic demand of around 51 million tonnes, giving Moscow room to export surplus volumes and making it one of the world's largest diesel suppliers. That cushion has now been eliminated. Moscow has responded with a sequence of export restrictions.
Russia banned gasoline exports in April, jet fuel exports on June 1, and diesel exports on July 8. The diesel ban covers oil companies that refine their own crude, removing an earlier exemption that had allowed large producers to continue selling abroad. To compensate for domestic shortfalls, Russia has begun importing finished fuel.
At least 60,000 tonnes of gasoline reportedly arrived from India. Gasoline shipments from Belarus reached 141,000 tonnes during the first 25 days of June, 2.4 times the volume imported during all of May. Reuters reported that Russia was seeking to import roughly 400,000 tonnes of gasoline per month from foreign suppliers.
Fuel shortages have spread across most Russian regions. Drivers in Chita reportedly waited as long as 39 hours at gas stations. Stations have closed or limited sales in Krasnodar, Irkutsk, Pskov, and other regions.
Some facilities reserved fuel for government and emergency vehicles. Moscow also altered the rules governing the wholesale fuel market: beginning July 1, large refiners were required to sell only 10% of their gasoline through SPIMEX, down from the previous 15% mandate, diverting more product to vertically integrated producers' own retail networks and leaving independent operators — which account for roughly 65% of Russia's 27,800 gas stations and supply an estimated 30% to 40% of the retail fuel market — to compete for fewer exchange volumes at higher prices. The global market impact has been immediate.
European diesel refining margins rose above $60 per barrel after Moscow imposed the export ban, reaching record levels, according to Fidelity. U.S. diesel futures recorded their largest one-day gain in four years following Russia's July 8 export ban, according to Reuters. Countries including Turkey, Brazil, North Africa, and Central Asia must now replace Russian cargoes with barrels from the United States, India, and the Middle East — competing with buyers already scrambling to replace delayed Gulf shipments amid ongoing regional tensions.
Russian jet fuel deliveries to Central Asia and Afghanistan fell more than 92% between May and June. Gasoline shipments to those markets dropped 34%. Analysts note that Russia's refining capacity will eventually recover, but whether it can rebuild its position as one of the world's most reliable diesel exporters remains far less certain, as export customers have already begun adapting supply chains to a world in which Russian fuel can no longer be considered dependable.
Source: OilPrice.com, Julianne Geiger, July 15, 2026. Additional sources cited include Bloomberg, Energy Aspects, Meduza, Reuters, and Interfax Ukraine.
Source: oilprice.com