US hot-rolled coil prices remained flat for the week ending July 31, 2026, with Steel Market Update's average domestic HR assessment unchanged at $1,165 per short ton. Offshore prices largely edged lower over the same period, widening the competitive gap between domestic and imported material, according to SMU's weekly analysis authored by David Schollaert. The spread between domestic and landed import prices — inclusive of the 50% Section 232 tariff — widened slightly to $111 per short ton on average, up $4 from the $107/st spread recorded the prior week.
The dynamic has remained broadly consistent since late April, with the 50% Section 232 tariff acting as the decisive factor shaping US market competitiveness. In Southeast Asian markets, CRU's Asian HRC price stood at $465/st as of Wednesday, July 29, down $2/st week on week and down $24/st over the past month. After applying the 50% Section 232 tariff and an estimated $90/st in freight, handling, and trader margins, the theoretical delivered cost of Asian hot-rolled band to US ports is approximately $788/st.
This leaves US-produced HR theoretically $377/st more expensive than Asian imports — a spread that widened by just $3/st week on week. European material presents a starkly different picture. Italian HR prices fell $7/st week on week to $723/st, though they remain $16/st higher than a month ago according to CRU.
Once the 50% S232 tariff and $90/st in estimated import costs are factored in, the theoretical delivered price of Italian HR reaches $1,175/st — placing domestic HR at a theoretical discount of $10/st to Italian imports, keeping the two near parity. Without the 50% tariff, US prices would theoretically sit $352/st above Italian imports. German HR prices dipped just $1/st week on week to $738/st, but have risen $29/st over the past month, per CRU data.
Adding the 50% tariff and $90/st in import costs produces a theoretical delivered price of $1,198/st for German HR coil — making domestic material $33/st cheaper in theory. By comparison, US hot band was $207/st more expensive than German HR a year ago. Without the 50% tariff, US prices would theoretically be $337/st above German imports.
The current tariff regime traces back to March 12, 2025, when President Trump reinstated across-the-board Section 232 tariffs of 25% on all steel imports. The administration subsequently doubled the rate to 50% effective June 4, 2025, producing an immediate and lasting impact on price differentials between domestic and foreign product. The move also replaced the system of hard and soft tariff-rate quotas that had governed imports from key allies including the EU, Japan, the UK, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, and Mexico under previous arrangements.
SMU's methodology compares its weekly US HR assessment (on an FOB mill basis) with CRU's weekly HR indices for Germany, Italy, and Southeast Asian ports. A standard $90/st charge is applied to all foreign prices to approximate freight, handling, and trader margins at US ports, in addition to the applicable tariff rate. The analysis is described as theoretical, as actual import costs can vary materially depending on origin, destination port, and individual buyer arrangements.
Anti-dumping and countervailing duties are not included in the calculations. Source: Steel Market Update / David Schollaert, July 31, 2026.
Source: steelmarketupdate.com