Global steel producers face mounting challenges, including excess production capacity, rising protectionism, higher costs and geopolitical tensions, according to experts who spoke at a panel titled “The Global Steel Industry Outlook: Risks, Opportunities and Strategic Priorities” during the 19th Arab Steel Summit, held in Cairo, Egypt, on November 3-4, as reported by SteelOrbis. The speakers also pointed to growth opportunities, particularly in India and the Middle East, and stressed that cost competitiveness and decarbonization are becoming increasingly important. Dr.
Alia El-Mahdy, former dean of the Faculty of Economics and Political Science at Cairo University, highlighted the growing use of trade restrictions, including safeguard measures, antidumping duties and environmental regulations such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). She said global steel overcapacity remains a structural challenge, with the average capacity utilization rate among the world's ten largest steel-producing countries standing at approximately 70.7 percent in 2025. El-Mahdy also underlined the impact of rising energy and raw material costs on producers, and identified opportunities in low-emission steel production, product diversification and digitalization.
Dr. Veysel Yayan, secretary general of the Turkish Steel Producers Association, drew attention to the impact of China's rapid production expansion and rising global protectionism on international steel trade. He criticized US tariffs and the EU's restrictive import quotas, noting that Turkey's steel exports to the EU had declined from approximately 7 million mt to 2.8 million mt.
Yayan warned that China's excess capacity continues to create imbalances in global markets and called for stronger international cooperation and a rules-based trading system to ensure fair competition. Mohamed Aljabr, consultant and expert in the iron and steel sector, identified India and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries as important growth markets. Referring to the worldsteel short-range outlook of October 2026, he said Indian steel demand is expected to increase by 7.9 percent in 2026 and 8 percent in 2027, supported by infrastructure investment and industrial development.
For the GCC, Aljabr stated that steel demand is expected to decline by approximately 11 percent in 2026 due to disruptions caused by regional geopolitical tensions, following strong growth in 2025. He added that many investment projects have been postponed rather than canceled, with demand forecast to rebound by 11.3 percent in 2027 as regional conditions improve. Sunil Seepana, senior analyst at CRU, similarly identified India and Southeast Asia as the main drivers of global steel demand growth through 2031.
CRU forecasts Chinese steel demand to fall from approximately 927 million mt in 2026 to 875 million mt in 2031, primarily due to continued weakness in the construction sector. He added that growing trade barriers and expanding production capacity in importing countries are expected to restrict Chinese steel exports in the coming years. Seepana also highlighted the growing importance of energy costs and carbon emissions in determining producers' competitiveness.
According to CRU's analysis, a 50 percent increase in energy costs will raise production costs, with electric arc furnace-based producers particularly exposed to energy price fluctuations. He noted that Middle Eastern and North African producers benefit from relatively low emissions intensity due to their reliance on natural gas-based production, while increasing investment in cleaner technologies by Chinese producers could intensify competition in low-emission steel markets. The panel concluded that, while emerging markets offer demand growth opportunities, increasing trade restrictions, energy costs and decarbonization requirements will continue to reshape global steel trade, making market access, production efficiency and cost competitiveness critical priorities for steel producers.
Sources: SteelOrbis (article by Demet Kazdal, published 4 November 2026), reporting on panel remarks at the 19th Arab Steel Summit. Forecasts attributed to worldsteel (October 2026 short-range outlook) and to CRU, as cited by their respective representatives at the summit.
Source: steelorbis.com