China's refined copper output this year is set to grow at the slowest pace in decades as smelters struggle to secure feedstock and falling sulphuric acid prices erode smelting profitability, according to market analysts. Output is expected to grow by between 3% and 3.4% this year, according to forecasts from Wood Mackenzie and Zijin Tianfeng Futures, compared with 10.4% growth achieved in 2025. This represents the lowest growth rate since at least 2000, based on Reuters' review of official data records.
While growth reached 4% during the January to August period, analysts expect a sharp decline in the fourth quarter as a tax crackdown reduces scrap copper supply, exacerbating the persistent shortage of copper concentrate, the primary feedstock for smelting operations. Raghav Jain, head of copper pricing at Argus, explained the compounding pressures: "The concern now is that scrap is tightening at the same time as concentrate, reducing smelters' ability to substitute between raw materials." Sulphuric acid, a critical byproduct of the smelting process, has been instrumental in maintaining smelter profitability despite dramatic declines in processing fees caused by the concentrate shortage. However, sulphuric acid prices have fallen 11% through September, according to information provider Oilchem, further weakening the economics of smelting operations.
Production cuts are intensifying as seven Chinese smelters plan equipment maintenance lasting between 30 and 60 days during October and November, expected to reduce refined copper supply by approximately 80,000 metric tons, according to consultancy Zhuochuang. The concentrate shortage stems from rapid global expansion of smelting capacity that has outpaced upstream mineral supply. Supply pressures have been compounded by temporary disruptions from accidents at major mining operations, including BHP's Escondida, MMG's Las Bambas, and Codelco's El Teniente.
The slowdown in Chinese output is likely to provide support for copper prices in the final quarter of the year. Brian Peng, an analyst at consultancy CRU, projected on September 23 an average copper price of $14,500 per ton in the fourth quarter, compared with a price range of between $11,700 and $14,875 recorded so far in 2026. Source: ScrapMonster, citing Wood Mackenzie, Zijin Tianfeng Futures, Reuters, Argus, Oilchem, Zhuochuang, and CRU.
Source: scrapmonster.com