The copper industry needs $332 billion in new mine investment to avert a supply shortage that could begin in 2028, even as refined metal production is expected to outpace demand over the next two years, according to BloombergNEF's Transition Metals Outlook 2026, released on Tuesday. The report, cited by mining.com, highlights a stark divergence between near-term market balances and long-term supply capacity. BloombergNEF forecasts global copper consumption to rise 61% between 2026 and 2050, to nearly 46 million tonnes.
Against that demand, the research firm projects a potential deficit of 20 million tonnes, equal to 44% of projected demand by 2050. The shortfall is expected to widen to 3 million tonnes, or 8% of consumption, by 2035. The near-term outlook is markedly different.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projects a refined copper surplus of 368,000 tonnes in 2027, up from 104,000 tonnes in 2026. The discrepancy reflects two different measures of supply. ICSG tracks refined copper production against consumption, while BloombergNEF examines whether mining capacity can satisfy demand over the coming decades.
According to the article, higher smelter output could keep refined metal available in the near term without addressing the shortage of new mines needed to support electrification. Demand growth is being driven by copper's widespread use in vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, electrical wiring and data centres. BloombergNEF expects demand to grow 34% by 2035, with its role in clean energy technologies accelerating consumption as electrification expands.
Electrified transport is expected to become a major source of demand growth, with copper consumption in the sector forecast to surge 244% to 11.4 million tonnes by 2050. On the supply side, the report identifies two major constraints: declining ore grades, which make copper increasingly difficult and expensive to extract from existing mines, and insufficient investment in exploration to identify new deposits. BloombergNEF estimates that new copper mines take an average of 17 years to reach production.
Lengthy permitting processes, substantial capital requirements and technical challenges further complicate efforts to expand output before shortages intensify. BloombergNEF notes that copper stands apart from the other nine materials examined in its outlook. The firm expects lithium, graphite, cobalt, aluminium, nickel, manganese, steel, platinum and palladium to have sufficient long-term production capacity to support electrification through 2050.
Source: mining.com, citing BloombergNEF Transition Metals Outlook 2026 and the International Copper Study Group.
Source: mining.com