Canadian miner Ivanhoe Mines has cut its 2027 copper production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to between 300,000 and 350,000 tons, according to the company's financial results released on November 3, as reported by Ecofin Agency. The revised outlook is the latest in a series of downgrades as Ivanhoe works to recover from seismic disruptions in 2025. Kamoa-Kakula had been ramping up production toward an annual target of 500,000 tons before seismic activity damaged parts of its underground facilities last year.
Ivanhoe has since been repairing the damage and revising its mining plans to reflect the pace of recovery. In July, the company cut its 2026 production forecast to between 290,000 and 310,000 tons but kept its 2027 target at 380,000 to 420,000 tons. The latest update lowers the 2027 forecast to between 300,000 and 350,000 tons.
The company now expects 2026 output of approximately 290,000 tons of copper in saleable products. Ivanhoe attributed the slower-than-expected recovery partly to a delay in resuming underground ore extraction on the eastern side of Kakula. That resumption is now scheduled for late March 2028, instead of the fourth quarter of 2027.
The company has also lowered its estimate of Kakula's maximum mining rate. Ivanhoe has reduced its estimate of Kamoa-Kakula's annual production capacity under the existing three phases of development to between 400,000 and 450,000 tons. Raising annual output to approximately 500,000 tons would require a fourth expansion phase, which has yet to receive a final investment decision.
The company plans to publish an updated mine plan in March 2027, setting out its strategy for returning Kamoa-Kakula to the ranks of the world's leading copper mines. The plan will also incorporate open-pit mining at Kamoa to complement underground operations and improve production flexibility. Fourth-quarter production figures are expected to provide a clearer picture of the recovery and of the complex's ability to meet the revised 2026 target.
Despite the lower forecasts, the complex has expanded its on-site processing capabilities. Its smelter, commissioned in December 2025, allows Kamoa-Kakula to produce copper anodes with a purity of 99.7%, rather than relying exclusively on exports of copper concentrate. According to the report, the facility also reduces transportation costs by allowing Ivanhoe to export higher-value products.
Kamoa-Kakula recorded revenue of $1.03 billion in the third quarter of 2026, a quarterly record, compared with $880 million in the previous quarter. Ivanhoe Mines holds a 39.6% stake in Kamoa-Kakula, equal to that of its Chinese partner Zijin Mining, while the Congolese government owns 20%. Source: Ecofin Agency, based on Ivanhoe Mines' financial results published November 3, 2026.
Source: ecofinagency.com